Campaign 2004 has been an emotional roller coaster for the “undecided voter.” There have been good weeks and bad weeks for each of the candidates. After the Swift Boat attack, many said we might as well stick a fork in John Kerry – he was cooked. What these spin doctors failed to remember is that a close race doesn’t even begin until the presidential debates.
These debates enable undecided voters to finally choose a president. Given the fact that Campaign 2004 is all about winning the hearts and minds of the undecided voters, I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that John F. Kerry will be the next president of the United States.
Our political process has degenerated into a well-financed, highly engineered public-relations campaign. Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been poured into Campaign 2004. Our political landscape is littered with pollsters, spinmeisters, interest groups, advertisements and partisan talking heads. It is difficult for most voters to determine truth from fiction.
As one wise Democratic senator said, “The Republicans can pump $20 million into a sow and get her elected to the U.S. Senate.” As a result, the electorate is legitimately skeptical of our political process. The presidential debates are the only opportunity the voters have to see their candidates unplugged and without the benefit of a staff of thousands.
John Kerry has won what voters consider to be the only pure test of a candidate’s mettle. Here the undecided voters are able to see the true colors and intellect of a candidate under the Klieg lights of high-stakes debate. These brief exchanges of ideas and ideals have determined the future of our nation since televised debate was invented; and the tighter the race, the more crucial the debates. Take for example Campaign 2000 where Al Gore came off as mister annoyed, smarty pants; whereas George W. Bush came off as humble, simple spoken and likeable. Game over for Al.
Ironically, what goes around comes around. John Kerry, a man who has been branded as aloof, indecisive and out of touch with mainstream America, has been able to connect with voters and reveal himself as a man of conviction, hope and understanding among the undecided voters. George W. Bush, on the other hand, has relied on the campaign slogans developed by his spin staff and, as a result, has come across to the undecided as shallow and non-responsive.
There have been no golden moments in any of the debates, other than perhaps the “faces of frustration” of George W. Bush in the first debate. Instead, the debates have slowly and steadily revealed that John Kerry really does understand the plight of ordinary Americans and has thought through change vs. more of the same, and can articulate the problems as well as offer solutions. This contrasts with the Bush, “steady as she goes, more of the same, I’m determined” model of leadership.
John Kerry was a big question mark leading up to the debates. Voters wanted to know “What does John Kerry stand for and why?” These questions have finally been answered in the course of the 180 minutes we have seen so far. Here’s an example: When confronted with his vote on parental notification for abortion, John Kerry explained why he voted against mandatory notification. He was not going to require a girl who had been raped by her father to tell her father she was pregnant. John Kerry wanted judicial protection for that girl and the bill would not allow for that protection.
It was a subtle moment of clarity in a sea of political confusion. The president’s intention was to throw a piece red meat to his constituency, but it came off as illustrating the complexity of making law as well as the compassion of John Kerry. Decisions are not always as simple as the parochial president would like us to imagine.
As I have said before, Americans often choose the candidate that they don’t mind having in their living rooms for the next four years. Admittedly until now, George W. Bush has been more likeable, more outgoing, and more gregarious than John Kerry. The president’s cheerleading background has served him very well in the world of politics.
Unfortunately for the president, however, one-liners only work when you are cheerleading a crowd of fans. They don’t play so well among an audience of millions who are fearful they may lose their jobs, their health care, their pension, or worst of all, their child in an ill conceived war. John Kerry has proved himself to be more than a cheerleader in a time of great anxiety and will be the next president of the United States.
