It wasn’t supposed to be like this. When the sun came up on election morning, the national polls showed Bush and Kerry locked in a dead heat. Early exit polls showed John Kerry with a comfortable lead in both Florida and Ohio. What happened?
In a word, Sept. 11. Sure, George Bush ran an effective campaign. And John Kerry made some mistakes. But this election was, in effect, over before it started. It was decided the moment Osama bin Laden’s warriors struck the Pentagon and the twin towers. Americans immediately rallied behind their president in the war on terror, which continues to this day. Never before in history have Americans booted a commander in chief out of office in the middle of a war. They couldn’t bring themselves to do it this time, either.
Terrorism wasn’t the only factor, but it was the main factor in the campaign. It overshadowed the economy – even in Ohio, which lost more jobs than any other state. It weighed more heavily on voters than the social conservative issues of gay marriage and abortion. It even trumped all the bad news from Iraq, largely because the president successfully equated the war on terror with the war in Iraq and John Kerry was unable to convince people otherwise. Most Americans voted out of fear.
Even his opponents must admit it was an impressive victory for President Bush. There’s no doubt, this time, he was elected – and elected with a mandate. He won both the popular and electoral vote. He became the first president since his father, in 1988, elected by a majority of all voters. And he racked up more votes than any presidential candidate in history.
It was also a clean sweep for Republicans. We are now a red nation. Conservatives control the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives and the Supreme Court – where George Bush will probably have the opportunity to make two or three new appointments.
That may be good news for the Republican Party, but it’s bad news for the nation.
Because, when I survey the damage done by George Bush in his first four years, I shudder to think of how much greater damage he can do now: unfettered, never having to run for re-election again – and never having to worry about those pesky Democrats in Congress.
Who will put the brakes on runaway federal spending? If George Bush never worried about the deficit before, he has even less reason to do so now. With a compliant Congress, we can expect more tax cuts geared to the wealthiest of Americans, more federal spending and a bigger federal deficit.
We can also expect an obedient Republican Congress to rubber-stamp Bush’s domestic agenda, including school vouchers, privatization of Social Security, drilling in Alaska, extension of the Patriot Act and more extremist judges. And, you bet, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage will soon be catapulted out of the next Congress, on its way to the states for ratification.
Bush will also interpret the election results as an endorsement of his reckless foreign policy. With the American people behind him, he will worry even less about international opinion. He’ll shun the United Nations. He’ll persist in an impossible mission in Iraq. And he’ll escalate his heavy-handed attitude toward peoples of the Middle East, thereby stirring up more anti-Americanism in the Arab world. His re-election is a recruiting dream for al-Qaida – leaving us less safe, not more safe, from terrorists.
Now, I will be the first to admit: I could be wrong. Bush may surprise us all. He has an unprecedented opportunity to pull the country together and begin the healing. He may, as he promised in his acceptance speech, use his mandate to show real leadership, reaching out to Democrats and Republicans alike in shaping lasting, bipartisan solutions to the nation’s problems. He may choose to govern from the middle, not the extreme right.
Bush may, in other words, prove to be “a uniter, not a divider” – as he promised in his first campaign. That’s what the country needs, but I doubt that’s what the country will get. We saw no sign of his willingness to compromise or work with the other side during his first four years.
And so ends the long campaign of 2004. The people have spoken. I accept their verdict. I hope for the best, but I fear for the worst.
