These days the airwaves are full of all sorts of panels discussing what the Democrats must do to improve their chances of victory in the future. Interestingly, I have not heard a single analyst propose the reform that I suggested, in all seriousness, in my first post-election column – namely, that it restructure itself to reduce the influence of the numerous special interests that now dominate the party (unions, teachers, blacks, gays, ultra-feminists, far-out environmentalists, anti-gun zealots, anti-religious activists, etc.) and make generous room in its ranks for the broad mass of the American people – white, married, middle-class, hard-working, devout and patriotic. Well, perhaps it was bad advice.
For the Republicans, the problem is how to extend their current success as long as possible. It may well be true that the long-heralded realignment in American politics has at last taken place – that the GOP, which after all has won five of the last seven presidential elections, is now the majority party in the country, with the Democrats in a semi-permanent minority. But there is nothing sacred about that status – it can be lost in an instant if the Republicans are foolish enough, or unlucky enough, to let it slip away.
What can they do to ward off that danger?
Obviously, they must not get caught presiding over a dramatic downturn in the economy. (The Democrats are still running against Herbert Hoover.) And they must avoid leading the country into some unpopular and endless war that expends American lives without a clear and plausible purpose (as Lyndon Johnson could advise them). Beyond that, they must be prepared to offer the American people sound leadership, in the form of strong candidates, above all for the presidency.
Fortunately, the Republicans have a powerful bench of possible candidates for the nomination in 2008. Perhaps the most obvious, because he has been the object of discussion at the presidential level for several years, is Arizona Sen. John McCain. He enjoys a reputation as a maverick, but took care this year to stay loyal to Bush (against whom he vied for the nomination in 2000), and is famously popular with independents. Nor are his views on the issues all that far out of line with orthodox Republican thinking. Perhaps his biggest problem is his age: He would be 73 upon inauguration – or, in other words, about three years older than Ronald Reagan was.
Hot on his heels may be Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. It is a fair question whether America in 2008 will be ready for another sprig of the Bush dynasty – a question that will probably turn on the success of George W. Bush's second term. But Jeb has twice won the governorship of a key state, and has the inestimable advantage, in the current state of American politics, of having a Mexican wife. Don't count Jeb Bush out.
To be sure, there are other governors under discussion, each with his pros and cons. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, incandescent as he may be, will almost certainly be unable to undo the current constitutional ban on foreign-born presidents in time to help himself. And New York Gov. George Pataki, even in the unlikely event that the Democrats' Eliot Spitzer doesn't unhorse him in 2006, is probably too bland to get far. Colorado's Gov. Bill Owens, on whom the sun seemed to shine for a time, is reportedly entangled in what may be described antiseptically as "woman trouble." But don't overlook Mitt Romney, the energetic and popular Republican who, astonishingly, occupies the governorship of Massachusetts.
Nor is McCain the only senator who thinks 2008 may be his year. Majority leader Bill Frist is reliably said to have his eyes on the prize. Thus far, Frist has been a fairly colorless leader, and if he cannot manage to engineer the ratification of at least one or two conservatives nominated by Bush to the Supreme Court, his hopes will evaporate. Conversely, however, winning a couple such battles would impress the party mightily.
There are still other possible contenders. Rudy Giuliani certainly has charisma to burn, though he may be a bit too feisty for the taste of a Republican convention, and ex-mayors of New York notoriously don't travel well. But there is certainly no reason for the GOP to feel that Hillary Clinton is unstoppable.