Craig R. Smith, co-author of "Black Gold Stranglehold" and author of "Rediscovering Gold in the 21st Century," will discuss the future of oil on CNBC Monday.
Here is a pre-interview Q&A summary for the live TV segment that will air on
CNBC Monday at 11:20 a.m. Eastern. In addition to Smith, Stephen Leeb of Leeb Capital Management has also been invited by CNBC to participate.
Here's CNBC's list of questions it wants answered Monday, followed by Smith's answers – a special preview for WND readers:
Q: How high do you expect oil prices are headed?
A: It depends on the time frame you are talking about. In the short-term, $80-$90 is very realistic. If the tension in Middle East escalates to involve Iran, I think $125 in the short-term is a certainty and it may even spike higher.
Q: Is $100 per barrel likely by the end of this year?
A: Yes, unless we send a signal to the world that we are serious about exploration and conservation. The U.S. consumes 25 percent of the world's oil, so we can have the biggest impact on the markets if we produce domestic oil supplies and use it judiciously.
Q: How long do you think this trend of rising oil prices will continue?
A: Until we increase worldwide and domestic production, while embracing alternatives like bio-diesel, ethanol, solar, wind, etc.
Q: What could prevent oil prices from continuing to climb in the near future?
A: This is clearly an Economics 101 issue; supply and demand. If we increase the supply, the ability to refine it and then conserve the use of it, prices will drop. If not, a limited supply and ever-increasing demand will result in higher prices. China, India and other emerging markets are putting serious pressure on the demand side. China is adding as many as 1,000 cars per day on the road with no let-up in sight.
Q: How significant of an impact do the events in the Middle East have on oil prices?
A: There is at least a $10 to $15 dollar risk-premium built into the price of oil at these levels. The threat of terrorism upon the production of oil in the Middle East was already there prior to the recent fight between Israel and Hezbollah. Tension in Nigeria has added to the problem. I think all eyes are on Iran, one of the top five oil producers in the world, so that has the market nervous. It's difficult to begin with to extract oil from the middle of the desert, but add war conditions to that and it makes it near impossible. If Iran's oil stopped flowing it would leave a gap in the 82 million barrels the world uses daily which would not easily be replaced.
Q: For how long will these effects be felt?
A: At this point it may be five to 10 years before remediation to this problem yields results that affect the average consumer.
Q: What other questions/discussion points do you think are important?
A: As I state in my book, the problems we face today did not happen yesterday. They are a result of 30 years of neglecting a comprehensive energy policy. Hopefully, the problems today will cause government and industry to look to the future with the determination and commitment to explore, drill and harvest domestic reserves, while embracing all the options. We have potentially 3 trillion barrels in the oil shale of the great basin as well as maybe 7 trillion barrels in the oil sands of Canada.
With oil above $60 you bring economies of scale to the issue we have yet had. This makes clean coal, hydrogen, oil shale, tar sands, etc., an economically viable option.
We must move past the ridiculous environmental restrictions that have been imposed on the energy business here in America and develop deep oil exploration of the OCS (outer continental shelve) and the ANWR while continuing to develop deep sea drilling in the gulf. Between conservation, use of alternatives and drilling we can solve this problem and my book outlines a simple seven-step plan to accomplish it.
Read more about "Black Gold Stranglehold" by Craig R. Smith and Jerome Corsi, Ph.D.