Desperate Olmert resorting to radical moves

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (PBS.org)

JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, under siege from across the political spectrum here, continues resorting to radical moves aimed at saving his flailing government, even at the expense of Israel's security.

Olmert is being pressured to form a state commission of inquiry to probe his government's management of last month's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Instead of forming the national commission, which would be run independently and would have the authority to recommend the resignation of top officials, the prime minister appointed two much weaker government-run committees to probe the war.

The two committees are controlled largely by Olmert's office. Their parameters are determined by Olmert. One committee, a probe into the military leadership, is headed by former Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, who served as an adviser to the Defense Ministry during the war he has been charged with investigating. The second commission, a probe into Olmert's government and the political leadership, is headed by former Chief of Mossad Nahum Admoni, a close Olmert confidant.

Protests have been held almost daily outside the prime minister's office, the Knesset and at Rabin Square in Tel Aviv – a leftist stronghold – for Olmert to appoint an independent commission and to resign.

The majority of Knesset members, excluding members of Olmert's ruling Kadima Party, have demanded an independent war probe. Even most members of Olmert's top coalition partner, Labor, have slammed the prime minister's appointed commissions and called for a state inquiry.

Olmert also is being attacked for his decision last week to end Israel's air and sea blockade imposed on Lebanon since fighting broke out July 12. Top military leaders argued ending the blockades will enable Hezbollah to receive arms shipments and to transport out of the country the two Israeli soldiers it kidnapped during an ambush that prompted 34 days of military confrontations.

Olmert publicly promised the families of the two abducted soldiers he would not end the embargo on Lebanese air and sea ports until the soldiers were returned.

He also repeatedly pledged Israel's military campaign in Lebanon would not cease until the two soldiers were freed. But the United Nations truce resolution Israel approved last month to end the war did not demand the soldiers' immediate return. Instead it called for negotiations leading to the freedom of the two Israeli captives.

Meanwhile, Olmert also is facing possible criminal charges. Israel's state comptroller has outlined a series of possibly illegal political appointments made by Olmert and has recommended the attorney general's office file charges. Olmert also is being probed for questionable land deals and for his involvement in the sale of a strategic port at a greatly undervalued price.

Newspapers here have published several investigative pieces accusing Olmert of illegally promoting millions in business interests of close associates.

And so to save himself, Olmert needs to re-win his centrist and left-wing base and exert enough political pressure on the Knesset and attorney general against attacking his government, which he will need to prove can bring results.

First Olmert tried the Syrian track. Just one day after Syrian President Bashar Assad delivered an address in which he called for the destruction of the Jewish state, Olmert's cabinet expressed interest in peace talks with Damascus leading to Israel's relinquishing of the Golan Heights, strategic mountainous territory captured by the Jewish state after Syria used the terrain to attack Israel in 1967 and again in 1973.

Military officials here long have maintained returning the Golan Heights to Syria would grant Damascus the ability to mount an effective ground invasion of the Jewish state. The territory looks down on major Israeli and Syrian population centers.

Defense Minister Amir Peretz told reporters last month a resumption of talks with Damascus over vacating the Golan Heights was possible. Public Security Minister and senior Kadima member Avi Dichter announced in exchange for "real peace" with Syria, Israel could give up the Golan Heights. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni even appointed a former Foreign Ministry official as "special project manager" for possible talks with Syria.

But Assad didn't bite, and the Israeli media and lawmakers here were relentless in their attacks of Olmert's gestures to Syria.

Next Olmert tried moving toward the right. He made statements against giving up the West Bank even though the very basis of Olmert's election platform was a unilateral withdrawal from the territory, which is within rocket range of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Israel's international airport. Olmert invited nationalist parties, including Israel's National Union Party, into his ruling coalition. The parties balked and slammed Olmert.

Now Olmert is turning to the Palestinian track. Yesterday he announced his government's willingness to negotiate with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. He called Abbas a "partner for peace." This even though the very basis of Olmert's withdrawal plan was his contention there was no Palestinian peace partner and unilateral withdrawal was the only option.

And Abbas is going along with Olmert's ploy. He must. Israel's ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, ongoing since June, and its arrest of top Hamas' lawmakers, has weakened significantly the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority in favor of Abbas. Talks of peace negotiations now will further strengthen Abbas against Hamas and would give Fatah the opening it needs to dominate a national unity government currently being discussed.

In a gesture to Olmert, British Prime Minister Tony Blair at a press conference alongside Abbas in Ramallah yesterday commented a "genuine opportunity" to further the peace process was at hand. He expressed confidence in Olmert's leadership and ability to bring peace to the region.

Will Olmert's latest bid work? Perhaps. Some of the most powerful attacks against the prime minister are coming from the left, which may be willing to temper its protestations if it means a resumption of negotiations leading to a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and parts of Jerusalem.

Also, with each passing day, the momentum shifts more in Olmert's direction. The Israeli public is known for its short-term memory. As the news cycle continues and new events dominate the agenda, it becomes more and more difficult to prosecute the prime minister for his management of the war in Lebanon.

Still, protests here are ongoing. Just this past weekend, 40,000 Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv in what was supposed to be an apolitical rally to call for Olmert to work for the release of the abducted soldiers. The gathering turned into an anti-Olmert fest.

According to multiple recent opinion polls, the Israeli public perceives Israel's war in Lebanon as a loss. It was the first major confrontation in which none of Israel's primary war objectives were met:

Hezbollah maintains its arms, the ability to fire hundreds of rockets per day into Israel and is feverishly regrouping in south Lebanon; the two abducted Israeli soldiers whose release was the very basis of the war have not been freed; the IDF did not clean out most Hezbollah strongholds; Israel suffered major losses both on the battlefield and during rocket attacks against its northern communities; Israel's enemies, particularly Syria, Iran and the terror gangs in Gaza and the West Bank, are arguably more emboldened. Syria is reportedly even forming its own Hezbollah-like group.

An international force will be deployed in south Lebanon, though it currently is less then half its original mandate of 15,000 troops and officials have stated it will not disarm Hezbollah or confront the group. Israeli military leaders argue an international force on Israel's border will hamper the IDF's ability to fight Hezbollah in the future.

Israel's war in Lebanon was a watershed event on all fronts. Such a war ultimately is unlikely to pass without a tidal wave of political consequences for its directors.

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