The magic fades

As long-time readers know, I have expected Hillary Clinton to succeed George W. Bush on the Cherry Blossom Throne since 2003. But while almost everything has gone precisely as my history-driven theory had it, from John Kerry's defeat in 2004 to the crash-and-burn of the "permanent majority party" idea that was so bandied about by Republican triumphalists during Bush 43's first term, there is a major obstacle that remains to her prophesied ascension.

No, it's not John McCain. While I was mistaken about the identity of the Republican sacrificial lamb, having wrongly concluded that it would either be George Pataki or Rudy Giuliani, there is literally no one who fit my prediction of "a hopeless candidate in the Dole mode" more accurately than John McCain. McCain, like Dole before him, is a senator and a veteran of foreign wars, wounded in the service of as well as a famous political moderate who is completely out of step with the conservative Republican base. In fact, it was McCain's unpopularity with Republicans that led me to discount him as a possible nominee, but then, I assumed that even if Republicans were inclined to take a November dive, they'd at least prefer to avoid a historic landslide of Reagan-Mondale proportions.

While it was always clear that John Edwards was not a serious candidate, I assumed from the beginning that Barack Obama was primarily in the race as a rabbit. A dull coronation process not only bores the media, but is profoundly un-Clintonian. The Clinton machine thrives on drama and conflict, indeed, it runs on drama and conflict, and both Bill and Hillary Clinton have long lived their lives lurching from one crisis to the next. They are like sharks that need to swim to stay alive. So, when the Magic Negro began winning over crowds of enthusiasts with his enchanting and nonsensical mantras, it was clear that he was primarily there to provide the necessary drama required for the Clintonian narrative to unfold.

I doubt very much if Hillary Clinton or anyone else expected the rabbit to begin running so wild. I rather doubt it seriously occurred to any member of Team Clinton that America might be ready to elect its first black president instead of its first woman president. Obama's unexpected rhetorical skills contrasted well with Hillary's flat and humorless presentation; the modern presidency is more about media presentation than resume, and there are few things more gruesome in high definition than a grim, 60-something feminist obsessed with power. And while most considered it a weakness, in this situation the Magic Negro's very inexperience has been of singular benefit since he has not had the time to amass an incriminating voting record or commit the secret sins of the average Washington politician that the Clinton machine normally expects to exploit to its advantage.

Thus, the machine was caught offguard in the early going, its standard-bearer was badly rocked, and both have only recently begun to return to form. It should be no surprise that this return to form coincides with stumble after stumble by the Obama campaign; the turn to Mrs. Obama in the hopes that she'll somehow bring around the milk-and-cookies crowd may well prove to be more disastrous than Obama's epic mishandling of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

While it's true that the delegate math looks all but insurmountable, this reasoning omits one important factor. Democrats are the epitome of inconsistency! The idea that Democrats are afraid to overturn the popular vote count due to the scars of the Bush-Gore Florida affair is absurd; anyone who has ever read a newspaper knows that American liberals have the memory of an amnesiac periodical cicada. Since the Magic Negro is rapidly approaching full meltdown mode, anything short of blowout wins in Indiana and North Carolina will cause superdelegate sentiment to shift rapidly toward Hillary Clinton in fear of the Democratic Party experiencing a third-straight unexpected loss when the electoral winds are at its back.

I could certainly be wrong. Most of the experience political pundits have been counting out the Lizard Queen for months now. But as with any epic horror star, it's unwise to assume she's done. Those who fail to learn the lessons of "Halloween" and "Friday the 13th" may regret counting out the Lizard Queen too soon.

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"Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton"

Tom Kuiper is author of the Hillary quotebook "I've Always Been a Yankees Fan: Hillary Clinton In Her Own Words," and is avidly following Hillary's evolution as a sports fan.