Did 15,000 Arabs just determine Israel's new leader?

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni

JERUSALEM – Did fewer than 15,000 Arabs just determine who will serve as Israel's next prime minister?

That may be the case following Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's slim win here by just 431 votes in yesterday's primary for the leadership of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima party. The primary elections had a high Arab turnout.

Now, if Livni can form a stable governing coalition – meaning if she can recruit enough parties to maintain a plurality of the Knesset's 120 seats – she would finish out Olmert's term in office, becoming prime minister in his place until new elections are held as scheduled late next year.

But if she does lead the country, Livni will hardly have a mandate, as she was elected not by the majority of the Israeli public, but in internal party elections in which less than 0.5 percent of Israelis took part. More than 10 times that number vote in Israel's version of "American Idol."

According to the final tally, Livni won the Kadima primary election with 43.1 percent of the vote, or 16,936 registered Kadima members. Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz came in a very close second with 42 percent, or 16,505 votes.

The question becomes who voted in yesterday's Kadima primary, in which registered party members who are regular citizens took part.

About 14,000 of Kadima's 74,000 registered voters are not Jewish, according to polling data, including 6,900 registered Arab Druze and 4,600 Muslim Arabs. The rest are largely Bedouin tribe members.

Poll stations reported yesterday that non-Jewish Kadima voters evidenced the highest turnout. Only about 50 percent of all eligible Kadima voters took part in the election.

Kadima member and Deputy Foreign Minister Majalli Whbee, who coordinates party issues related to the non-Jewish sector, estimated yesterday that many Muslim voters would take part in the elections last night, following a feast that ended the day of Ramadan fasting.

"After the feast, voters will arrive (to polling stations) en masse," Whbee told YnetNews.

Yesterday, Livni sought and received the extension of voting time by 30 minutes, possibly allowing more Muslim voters to reach the polls following the feast.

The Jerusalem Post reported that in some Arab polling stations, such as Beit Jan in the North, Livni crushed Mofaz.

Livni has been leading Olmert's team negotiating with the Palestinian Authority in talks aimed at creating a Palestinian state, at least on paper, before January. Her election in the primaries would favor continued negotiations.

To that effect, the PA has been urging local Israeli Arab leaders to help campaign for Livni.

Her slim win may have even been by less than 431 votes. In one polling station in the city of Rahat a ballot was disqualified after a man tore it up and scattered hundreds of envelopes that were inside. The ballot reportedly contained 430 votes.

Mofaz's team pointed out that in theory, if every single person there voted for Mofaz, Livni would have won by a single vote.

"We cannot have our prime minister chosen by one vote only," Mofaz's lawyer told Israel Radio.

Also possibly affecting voting, in the last 15 minutes of the elections Israel's major news networks all reported, wrongly, Livni would win by a large margin.

Eventually, Mofaz decided not to challenge yesterday's election, paving the way for Livni's possible ascent to Israel's highest office.

Ynet quoted PA officials as being happy with the results.

"Even if our formal position is that we work with whoever is elected, it is no secret that working with Livni will be much easier. She knows the material, and there is no need to start from scratch with her," the source told Ynet.

"Livni understands that the solution to the situation is a quick diplomatic agreement with us," the source said.

To interview Aaron Klein, contact M. Sliwa Public Relations by e-mail, or call 973-272-2861 or
212-202-4453.

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