Editor’s Note: The following report is excerpted from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin, the premium online newsletter published by the founder of WND. Subscriptions are $99 a year or, for monthly trials, just $9.95 per month for credit card users, and provide instant access for the complete reports.
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The outbreak of violence in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas has observers concerned that it will incite Hezbollah in Lebanon to action against Israel and prompt Iran to react, thereby giving Israel a basis to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, according to a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
Indeed, Hezbollah has mobilized its forces to be on alert in the event of Israeli incursions into Lebanon.
In southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has amassed some 40,000 Iranian-supplied missiles for possible use against Israel. Security analysts say Hezbollah may be holding them in reserve to retaliate if Israel were to attack Tehran.
Security experts believe, however, that while the Shiite Hezbollah supports the Sunni Hamas in its fight against Israel, Hezbollah won’t enter the conflict on the side of Hamas unless Israel attacks Lebanon.
“I think it’s very unlikely that Hezbollah will open a second front on the border, but they are in a difficult position,” said Paul Salem of Beirut’s Carnegie Middle East Center.
“Politically, they are under pressure to act. Other Arab states have paid lip service, but the difference with Hezbollah is they take action,” he added. “But I don’t think they will act, because it will come at a huge cost and this is not a battle of their choosing.”
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Security analysts also point out that for some time Hezbollah has sought to maintain a low profile in the political hope of gaining more seats in parliamentary elections slated for May 2009.
The goal is to increase the organization’s plurality as an effective political force against the U.S.-backed Sunni majority controlling the parliament.
Some security experts, however, have expressed concern that Israel’s overall strategy in Gaza may be to lure Iran which supports Hamas and Hezbollah into the conflict.
Israel still is stinging from what is perceived as a loss in its 34-day 2006 war with the Hezbollah.
Regional experts also see the Gaza attacks as part of a larger issue of Iran-supported forces in the region against supposed moderate elements such as Egypt and the Palestinian Authority.
In recent days, both Hezbollah and Iran have come under criticism from Egypt.
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Let’s curb the kangaroo court of anonymous sources
Tim Graham