Jihad inside U.S. cannot be ruled out

A private intelligence service that advises corporations and governments about political, economic and military developments around the world says it was surprised jihadists were not successful in an attack within the United States last year.

"Given the vulnerabilities that exist in an open society and the ease of attack, we cannot rule out an attack in 2009," said today's report from Stratfor, a leading online publisher of geopolitical intelligence.

The annual report, written by Fred Burton and Scott Stewart, said al-Qaida – "a global jihadist nework rather than a monolithic entity" – is likely to cause problems, even though Osama bin Laden himself has become marginalized in the war.

"The regional jihadist franchises and grass-roots operatives pose a much more significant threat in terms of security concerns, though it is important to note that those concerns will remain tactical and not rise to the level of a strategic threat," the report said.

Attacks are not likely to reach the tragic levels of 9/11, the report said.

"In our view, the sort of strategic challenge that al-Qaida prime posed with the 9/11 attacks simply cannot be replicated without a major change in geopolitical alignments – a change we do not anticipate in 2009," the report said.

The report said the organization's forecasts for 2008 mostly were right. It reported Pakistan would be a potential flashpoint, and eight days later, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated.

Its expectation that jihadists would rely on firearms and explosives also was correct, with no jihadist attacks using WMD in 2008.

For 2009, there will be more conflicts involving the U.S., the group forecasts.

"We anticipate that we will see the United States continue its campaign of decapitation strikes against al-Qaida leadership. While this campaign has not managed to get bin Laden or al-Zawahiri, it has proved quite successful at causing the al-Qaida apex leadership to lie low and become marginalized from the physical jihad," the report said.

"The campaign also has killed a long list of key al-Qaida operational commanders and trainers," the report said.

"As long as the ideology of jihadism survives (it has been around since the late 1980s), the jihadists' war against the world will continue. It will continue to oscillate between periods of high and low intensity. In the coming year, we believe the bulk of physical attacks will continue to be conducted by regional jihadist franchise groups, and to a lesser extent by grass-roots jihadists," it continued.

"We do not see a strategic threat to the United States. However, as seen by the recent convictions in the Fort Dix plot trial, or even in the late October case where a U.S. citizen apparently committed a suicide bombing on behalf of al-Shabab in Somalia, the threat of simple attacks against soft targets in the United States remains. We were again surprised that no jihadist attacks occurred in the United States in 2008. Given the vulnerabilities that exist in an open society and the ease of attack, we cannot rule out an attack in 2009," the report sid.

The threat of attacks are greater in Europe, where jihadists have a greater presence and infrastructure, Stratfor said.

"Meanwhile, though Iraq is far calmer than it was a few years back, a resurgence in jihadist activity is possible," the report said. "One of the keys to calming down the many jihadist groups in Iraq was the formation of the Awakening Councils, which are made up of many Sunni former Baathist (and some jihadist) militants placed on the U.S. payroll. With the changes in Iraq, responsibility for these Awakening Councils has been passed to the Iraqi government. If the Shiite-dominated government decides not to pay the councils, many of the militants-turned-security officers might return to their old ways – especially if the pay from jihadist groups is right. Intelligence reports indicate that Baghdad plans to pay only a fraction of the approximately 100,000 men currently serving in the Awakening Councils. The Iraqi central government apparently plans to offer the bulk of them civilian jobs or job training, but we are skeptical that this will work."

And watch Pakistan.

"Not only is Pakistan the home of the al-Qaida core leadership as its pursues its ideological war, it also is home to a number of jihadist groups, from the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in the northwest to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in the northeast, among several others," the report said.

"If Pakistan continues to destabilize, it could very well turn into a failed country (albeit a failed country with a nuclear arsenal). Before Pakistan becomes a failed state, there are a number of precursor stages it probably will pass through. The most immediate stage would entail the fall of most of the North-West Frontier Province to the jihadists, something that could happen this year," the report warned.