 Tzipi Livni |
TEL AVIV, Israel – In a shocking development, the Kadima party headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has been projected as the winner of today’s elections in Israel, according to initial exit polls.
The projected results – if verified by ballot counts – would be a major upset for opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who had been leading in all major polls the past few months.
Still, there is a possibility Netanyahu could become the next prime minister, even if his party doesn’t garner them most votes.
An exit poll commissioned by Israel’s Ynetnews.com showed Livni’s Kadima party taking 28 Knesset seats, with Netanyahu’s Likud coming in second with 26 mandates. The Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by nationalist Avigdor Leaberman, was projected to take 16 seats, with the leftist Labor party, headed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak winning just 14.
Similar exit polls conducted by all three Israeli television networks also found Livni in the lead by an average of two seats.
In Israel, prime ministers are not directly elected. Instead, voters chose a specific party, with the votes being used to determine how many seats each party will hold in the 120-chair parliament. Usually, the leader of the party with the most seats becomes the prime minister if he or she can put together a stable coalition consisting of more than half of Knesset seats.
Should Kadima take the most seats, as projected, a situation could arise in which Livni would not be able to recruit enough parties to put together a stable coalition, particularly if Yisroel Beiteinu and Labor work with Netanyahu in an effort to block Livni.
Also instrumental will be the ultra-religious Shas party and smaller nationalist and religious parties.
Today’s elections were scheduled because Livni could not muster enough parties to join her coalition following the resignation of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert late last year.
Even though his Likud party may hold fewer seats, if Livni fails to form a coalition then Netanyahu may be able to form a stable enough coalition with Yisroel Beiteinu, Shas, Labor and nationalist parties, meaning he could still become prime minister.
Already, initial estimates show right-leaning parties will take about 63 seats while left-leaning parties will only have 57, with the rest of the chairs going to religious and Arab parties. If the “rightist” bloc bands together, only Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition and become prime minister.
Ultimately, the decision on who is allowed to form a coalition will be up to Israeli President Shimon Peres, whose office is charged with selecting a politician for the task. Traditionally, the leader of the party with the most seats is immediately asked to form a government, but if that leader – projected to be Livni – then fails, Peres can ask Netanyahu to follow.
The differences between Livni and Netanyahu are stark. Livni favors talks with Syria and continuing U.S.-brokered negotiations with the Palestinian Authority aimed at an eventual Israeli retreat from the strategic West Bank and perhaps eastern Jerusalem. She has not espoused a strong policy regarding Iran.
Netanyahu has spoken against evacuating strategic territory and has pledged that as prime minister his main goal would be to halt Iran’s purported drive to develop nuclear weapons.
