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Half of all voters in districts where there are competitive races for Congress will not support the incumbent candidate because of Washington’s attempt to increase government control of health care, according to a new survey.
The results come from a poll by Zogby International–O’Leary Report that surveyed 2,879 Americans Nov. 10-12 – all of whom voted in the 2008 presidential election. It has a margin of error of only 1.9 percent.
The questioning focused on whether lawmakers who vote for the health-care plan – promoted in the U.S. House by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. – are in trouble in the 2010 election.
Since the poll was taken, U.S. senators also have voted to move forward with debate on a plan similar to Pelosi’s. The survey looked at races deemed by political guru Charlie Cook to be competitive.
The poll asked: “If your U.S. representative supported the health-care bill introduced by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, does that make you more or less likely to support him or her in the 2010 elections?”
The survey showed for competitive Senate races, only one voter in four was “much more likely” to vote to re-elect their senator in 2010.
Forty-nine percent would be “much less likely,” the report said.
The poll said just 15 percent of voters in districts where there are competitive races would be “somewhat more likely” to support a federal lawmaker who voted for the nationalized health care plan. Five percent would be “somewhat less likely.”
For voters in competitive congressional districts, not even one voter in five is “much more likely” to vote to re-elect their member of Congress in 2010. Fifty-four percent said they would be “much less likely,” and another 4 percent said they would be “somewhat less likely.” Only 15 percent admitted being “somewhat more likely.”
The survey showed nationally, 52 percent said they would be “much less likely” or “somewhat less likely” to support re-election of their member of Congress. Just 27 percent said they would be “much more likely,” and 14 percent are “somewhat more likely.”
The survey also revealed voters in competitive Senate and House races oppose penalizing small businesses if they don’t offer health insurance.
The poll asked: “The U.S. House of Representatives approved a new health-care bill recently. If approved by the Senate as is, companies that do not offer health insurance would be penalized based on payroll costs. This could include small firms with 25 or fewer workers depending on the payroll size. Most Democrats support this as a way to encourage businesses to offer health care to their employees, while most Republicans disagree with this because they say it discourages increased pay or new hires at small firms. Do you agree or disagree with this portion of the bill?”
Only 19 percent of voters where a U.S. senator is in a competitive race “strongly agree,” and 19 percent “somewhat agree,” the survey showed. A plurality of 46 percent “strongly disagree,” and another 11 percent “somewhat disagree.”
“Only 16 percent of voters in competitive congressional districts ‘strongly agree’ with such a penalty, and 52 percent ‘strongly disagree.’ Just 16 percent ‘somewhat agree’ and 10 percent ‘somewhat disagree,'” the poll said.
Nationally on this question, 19 percent of voters “strongly agree” and 20 percent “somewhat agree.”
Forty-five percent “strongly disagree” and another 10 percent “somewhat disagree,” the report said.
If you are a member of the media and would like to interview Brad O’Leary about this story, e-mail [email protected].
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John Stossel