The winning hand of eligibility issue

The campaign to determine, once and for all, with certainty, whether Barack Obama is constitutionally eligible to serve as president is nearing victory.

As a proud "ringleader" of this effort, I have frankly and candidly offered grave doubts that this issue would ever be settled by the courts. I think those who have pushed resolution in the courts are brave and commendable for their efforts. But, as I have said countless times, there is no judge in America who is ever going to rule the sitting "president" ineligible. It's just not going to happen. The judiciary is, like it or not, a political institution.

But as the court of public opinion on this constitutional question has shifted dramatically over the last year, with some 58 percent of Americans voicing skepticism about Obama's eligibility, resolution is no longer a long shot. It is in sight. It is at hand.

Last spring I predicted, for the first time, just how this controversy would be resolved with finality.

I explained that in 2011 one or more state legislatures would approve bills requiring future presidential candidates to demonstrate their constitutional eligibility as "natural born citizens" before getting on the ballot.

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One such measure passed the House in Arizona earlier this year, but the legislative session ended before the matter could be brought to the Senate.

Another similar bill was introduced in the Georgia Legislature too late to get a vote.

And now, the Legislature in the great state of Texas is considering the same kind of measure.

That's why I organized a petition campaign directed at the states, where a fair hearing on a simple and reasonable idea could actually be held.

Think about the ramifications of even one state approving such a bill and getting it signed into law by the governor.

It will mean that Barack Obama will have a tough decision to make in 2012. He is going to have to cough up what he has been unwilling to produce for the American people – a long-form birth certificate.

Now I don't know why he has been unwilling to do that. But at this late date, I strongly suspect he can't or won't under any circumstances. Either it would prove him ineligible or what it will reveal is so embarrassing and contradictory to his stated life narrative that it would render him political toast.

So what will he do in the face of such a requirement by even one state?

He can't afford to write off a state. To do so would be tantamount to an admission he is and has been ineligible from the beginning.

His only other option is not seeking re-election.

That is exactly my prediction of what will happen should one courageous state legislature and one courageous governor do the right thing – Obama's media acolytes be damned.

The only question will be what excuse Obama offers the public about his decision not to run.

I have no doubts the willingly compliant press will accept at face value whatever rationalization he offers. They will be mournful that their chosen one is stepping aside. If he tells them it's a matter of health, they'll buy it. If he tells them it's a matter of spending more time with his family, they will buy it. If he tells them it's for the good of his party, they will buy it. If he tells them he has a great offer to do a new reality show, they will buy it.

I tell you all this because this is about to become one of the biggest political stories of our time – and nobody sees it coming.

Remember where you heard it first.