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The turmoil in Libya could mean the North African country’s resurgence as a base for radical al-Qaida terrorists, regional analysts say in a report in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
The analysts are warning that given the increasing prospect that Libya could disintegrate into a rudderless territory similar to Somalia, it could become a new base of operation for al-Qaida, uniting al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula with al-Qaida in the Maghreb, which oversees North Africa.
That development would create a base of operations for militant jihadists to prepare to launch into Europe.
Unlike neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, which have had strong military regimes to ensure stability, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi purposely kept his military and security forces fractured and weak, making them virtually powerless without his leadership.
Should Gadhafi leave the scene, there will be no institution to replace him, such as occurred recently in Cairo and Tunis.
This means that Libya “could spiral into chaos, the ideal environment for jihadists to flourish, as demonstrated by Somalia and Afghanistan,” according to Scott Stewart of Stratfor Global Intelligence service.
“Should Libya become chaotic and the jihadists become able to establish an operational base amid the chaos, Egypt and Italy will have to be concerned about not only refugee problems but also the potential spillover of jihadists,” Stewart said.
Libya has a history of involvement in militant operations in Bosnia, Chechnya, Iraq and Afghanistan. Many of the Libyan fighters in those areas returned to Libya, set up strongholds in such areas as Darnah, Benghazi and Ras al-Helal and al-Qubbah in the Jabal al-Akhdar region.
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