Editor’s note: This is another in a series of “WND/WENZEL POLLS” conducted exclusively for WND by the public-opinion research and media consulting company Wenzel Strategies.
Just 38 percent of his own party say things are going along fine in the United States, and only 9 percent of independents have that opinion. Even among blacks, 48 percent say the nation is on the wrong track, according to a new poll.
So what does it mean for Barack Obama’s campaign for another four-year lease on the Oval Office?
“One thing is clear – Obama is in very deep trouble and has been for quite some time,” said Fritz Wenzel, whose Wenzel Strategies completed the new poll on Obama.
The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 23-27 and carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.91 percentage points.
“Poll numbers for political figures tend to be like cement – the longer they sit at low levels without significant rebounds, the harder it becomes to make them move much at all,” Wenzel said. “Voters appear to have drawn conclusions about Obama’s performance in office and his capacity to lead.
“It will be very difficult for him to recover under good circumstances, and there is now no hint on the horizon that the economy or America’s gaping political divide will heal anytime soon,” he said.
“In the end, this all works against the incumbent,” Wenzel said.
He noted the poll results show that only 38 percent of Democrats, the president’s own party, believe things are going well. Forty-six percent of the Democrats said they believe the country is off the rails.
“Among the very liberal, or progressives, just 41 percent said things are on the right track,” Wenzel said. “But the most daunting details in this latest survey may be what independents think: just 9 percent said they think things are headed down the right road, while 77 percent said things are moving in the wrong direction.”
The poll indicated that among blacks, only 43 percent believe country is on the right track. Forty-eight percent called the nation’s trajectory the wrong road.
Among all age groups, the belief that Obama is leading the nation in the right direction never rose above 22 percent, and among all income ranges, only those making $50,000 to $75,000 a year broke 20 percent approval (23 percent).
Thirteen-point-seven percent overall say Obama is doing an excellent job and another 20 percent considered his work good. But two out of three said his performance has been fair to poor. Almost no one did not have an opinion on that question.
Among those who identified themselves as “moderate,” only one in 10 said Obama’s work was excellent, to nearly 32 percent who said it was poor.
The poll showed that 46 percent said it was at least “likely” that Obama may be able to pull of a second-term victory, but 50 percent said no.
“Obama’s actual chances of winning re-election remain reasonable. Not great, but reasonable,” Wenzel said.
Asked whether Obama should seek re-election in the midst of a fading economy and scandals, 44 percent said he should seek a second term, while 48 percent said he should not, according to the poll.
“Interestingly, while 81 percent of Democrats said he should run for a second term, just 76 percent said they would vote for him in a primary election if he were opposed by an unnamed Democrat,” the poll report said. “And among independent voters who said they would participate in the Democratic Party’s caucus or primary in the state, just 56 percent said they would support Obama, while 32 percent would vote for an unnamed Democrat.”
“It is hard to overestimate the political trouble into which the White House has fallen as we head into the third winter of the Obama administration. Just 17 percent of Americans nationwide think the country is headed in the right direction,” Wenzel said.
“Even among progressives, Obama only wins 74 percent support, perhaps an expression of anger at Obama for what the left has seen as his failures to accomplish their agenda,” he said.
Read the results of the poll questions:
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY: If the race for the Democratic Party nomination for president in your state was today, and the candidates were Barack Obama and an unnamed Democrat, for whom would you vote?