By Ryan Mauro
Al-Qaida's style of jihad may be about to change, because of the loss of several of the terror group's key leaders including Osama bin Laden and Anwar al-Awlaki, and the fact that they may be replaced in a fashion by several chiefs released recently by Iran and Syria.
That doesn't, however, mean less violence is expected, only different.
It was reported earlier this month that Iran had granted greater freedom to five al-Qaida leaders on its soil. The most prominent official is Saif al-Adel, a key operations chief. According to the 9/11 Commission, he disagreed with the 9/11 attacks.
The newly released leaders also have expressed criticism of the previous strategies that included the attacks on the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001.
It was in 2002 when Saif al-Adel wrote, "We must completely halt all external actions until we sit down and consider the disaster we caused. During six months, we only lost what we built in years."
He criticized his colleagues for ordering "random" attacks that jeopardize "the establishment of an [Islamic] state."
However, this does not mean that he opposes dramatic acts of terrorism. The Long War Journal mentions that former CIA director George Tenet's book, "At the Center of the Storm," reveals that from 2002-2003, Saif al-Adel was entertaining a possible deal to buy three Russian nuclear weapons.
Another leader that Iran is allowing greater movement is Suleiman Abu Ghaith, a spokesman for al-Qaida. In 2010, he published a book titled, "Twenty Guidelines on the Path of Jihad."
Ghaith implicitly criticized his colleagues for promoting a "culture of killing and destruction" instead of a "culture of life and building." Like Saif al-Adel, he said that jihadists need to focus more on building an Islamic state.
Abu Hafs al-Mauritani, another al-Qaida leader who opposed the 9/11 attacks, also has been let loose by Iran. He wrote the introduction to Suleiman Abu Ghaith's book.
Further, the Syrian government released Abu Musab al-Suri, also known as Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, and his top aide, Abu Khalid. Al-Suri used to oversee al-Qaida operations in Europe and has been connected to the London bombings of July 7, 2005, and the Madrid bombings of March 11, 2004.
Like the others, al-Suri says the 9/11 attacks were counterproductive and "put a catastrophic end to the jihadi current." His book, "The Global Islamic Resistance Call," was published on the Internet in December 2004 and argues that jihad should be focused first on establishing an Islamic state while calling Muslims to "individualist jihad."
He also warns against al-Qaida's attacks on other Muslims, non-combatants, women and children.
Al-Suri proposes that al-Qaida follow a strategy that sounds more similar to that of the Muslim Brotherhood. He says that democratic reform can allow jihadists to "secretly use this comfortable and relaxed atmosphere to spread out, reorganize their ranks and acquire broader public bases."
The rising power of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist parties throughout North Africa and in the Middle East elections since the "Arab Spring" began last year is likely to further encourage al-Qaida to adopt this strategy.
But the bombs may not be done yet, either. Sky News reported on February 15 that a secret intelligence report revealed that Iran and al-Qaida are working on "conducting a joint attack against Western targets overseas."
It is thought that they are looking at carrying out a strike in Europe, causing speculation about an attack at, or around the time of, the Olympics in London between July 27 and August 12.
The release of the al-Qaida leaders by Syria and Iran may be connected to this joint terrorist plot.
Ryan Mauro is frequently on Fox News Channel as a national security analyst. His personal website is WorldThreats.com. He can be contacted at [email protected].