Every primary election tells a story. The primaries of May 8, 2012, told a new eye-opening story.
Read these slowly:
- A prison inmate from Texas just won 40 percent of the votes in the West Virginia Democratic primary against Obama without having any campaign in West Virginia. A prison inmate in Texas. A primary election in West Virginia. Forty percent of Democrats voted against Obama.
- Indiana voted 61 to 39 in the Indiana Republican primary for the tea-party candidate. Republicans ousted Richard Lugar after his 36 years in the Senate because he is a friend/compromiser to Obama and Democrats.
- North Carolina voted by 61 percent to join 30 other states in defining marriage as between one man and one woman and eliminate any other types of "unions," "contracts," or arrangements that dilute that definition. California voted the same in 2008. Conservative states on this issue outnumber the liberal states by 31 to 19.
- In the Democratic primary in North Carolina, 21 percent of the votes were cast for "other" on the ballot, against Obama.
- The Wisconsin Democratic primary to select a candidate to run against Gov. Scott Walker in the June recall just elected the same person who lost to Walker in the last election by 6 points. Democrats selected the mayor of Milwaukee. He was not the choice of the teacher's union that instigated the recall. The NEA union candidate lost in their own primary. The total votes for all the Democrats in this primary election were less than the votes received by Walker.
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Hmm. In each of these cases, the media polls like CNN/Gallup/USA Today predicted outcomes that were much more favorable to Democrats and Obama. They continually post polling information that overstates the position of Obama and the Democrats. They are trying to affect the elections rather than just report about them. Only Rasmussen picked all of them correctly. Rasmussen now says that Romney leads Obama 49 to 44 and that Romney leads Obama in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin and Ohio. Obama won all five of those states in 2008 and cannot afford to lose them in 2012.
My prediction: In August, Hillary will be named to replace either Obama or Biden to firm up the single female vote for Democrats. Then Romney will announce Rubio as his running mate. Checkmate.
Obama won 75 percent of the Latino vote and 55 percent of the Catholic vote in 2008. Catholics are 40 percent of all voters. Right now, Rasmussen says that Catholic voters are split 49/49 between Obama and Romney. Rubio will take a third of the Latino vote from Obama. Cardinal Dolan is hammering away at Obama for lying to him. Obama will probably drop to less than 45 percent of Catholic votes by November. Those reductions to Catholics and Hispanics will cut 6 points from Obama.
Do the math. A 6-point reduction cuts Obama to 47 percent from his 53 percent in 2008. Hillary is the only hope for Democrats – and they will pull her out in August to help them. Bill and Hillary are assessing the situation right now. Will she do it? Only if she thinks she can win. Watch closely.