By Adam Turner
It is very disturbing, to say the least, when a United States president says something that is demonstrably, and obviously, false.
So when President Obama claims that “the world is more stable than it was five years ago,” one winces.
On its face, this declaration simply is not true. A number of foreign-policy reporters and commentators noted how jarringly out of touch the comment was. Some even called the president delusional.
Evaluating the true state of the president’s mind is beyond the focus of a foreign-policy column. However, we can evaluate the truth of his statement, especially regarding the Middle East.
Based on the clear meaning of the president’s speech, there should be evidence that, at the very least, a majority – or a plurality – of the world’s countries are “more stable” in 2013 than they were in 2008. Based on the context of the statement, it’s assumed “stability” means physical stability, i.e., the current regime is securely in power and there is an absence of a significant number of physically violent incidents in that nation, and not simply “economic instability.”
Here’s a rundown of the current “stability” of Middle East and Islamic nations:
Afghanistan: According to the Wall Street Journal, in 2013, in Afghanistan, “(t)he Taliban are growing more aggressive. Coalition forces, taking with them their superior training and equipment, are leaving Afghan troops less able to fight and less able to save the lives of their critically wounded.”
And Afghan “casualty levels for the police and army have climbed … making 2013 the bloodiest for Afghan forces since the U.S.-led coalition arrived in 2001.”
Egypt: In 2008, Egypt was governed, somewhat uneasily, by its longtime pro-American dictator, Hosni Mubarak. Since that time, the largest Arab nation has gone through countless demonstrations with millions of Egyptians in the streets, riots, the bombing of Coptic churches, an increase in blasphemy charges for speech and two military coups. There has also been a seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, supposedly because of a film, but really because of the desire of Islamists to free the Blind Sheikh, Omar Abdel Rahman, the terror mastermind behind the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, from a U.S. prison.
Iran: In 2008, Iran was much further away from developing nuclear weapons, which would allow it to nuke Israel, Saudi Arabia and other nations. Iran was also not involved in the Syrian civil war.
Iraq: In 2008, Iraq was experiencing its post-surge period of calm. Now, with American troops having been withdrawn in 2011, al-Qaida in Iraq has managed to revive itself, and violence rates have soared back to 2008 levels. TIME magazine has reported that Iraq may be “spiraling towards civil war” as “violence in Iraq has escalated to levels unfathomable in almost any other country, and by any metric – death tolls, frequency, geographic distribution – it’s becoming worse.”
Israel: In 2008, the Middle East was much less explosive, and the Iranians were much further from developing a nuclear weapon with which to bomb Israel. Also, thanks to the Obama administration, which has increased pressure on Israel to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority, new Palestinian terrorists are roaming the streets of the Arab world, after being released from Israeli prisons, and there has been a resulting increase in terrorism.
Jordan: Since the Arab Spring of 2011, demonstrations have been frequent in downtown Amman and show no sign of stopping. Further, the large number of Syrian refugees is increasingly unsettling to the nation.
Lebanon: In 2008, Lebanon, governed by the terrorist state within a state, Hezbollah, was relatively quiet. Today, Lebanon has been destabilized by the arrival of thousands of Syrian refugees, and the Hezbollah terrorist militia has become a significant source of troops and equipment to the pro-Assad forces fighting in Syria. As a result, some of the violence in Syria has been bleeding into Lebanon.
Libya: In 2008, Moammar Gadhafi, the crazy tin-pot dictator, had given up his weapons of mass destruction – in response to President Bush’s actions in Iraq and Afghanistan – and was largely focused on keeping himself in power. In 2011, after President Obama led from behind an overthrow of the Gadhafi regime, Libya descended into anarchy, with Islamist rebels fighting each other for power in the streets and Libyan weapons being shipped off to Syria jihadists. On Sept. 11, 2012, a U.S. ambassador and three other Americans were slaughtered in Benghazi by Islamists.
Pakistan: In 2008, Osama bin Laden was still alive in Pakistan. Since then, he has gone to meet his maker. However, also since that time, we have discovered the treachery of Pakistani leadership in protecting the mass terrorist, torturing the doctor who helped the U.S. find him and sponsoring terrorist groups that kill Americans. Also, we have seen the increasing instance of blasphemy prosecutions and resulting violence in that nation, and Islamist violence directed towards Christian and other non-Sunni Muslims.
Saudi Arabia & the other Gulf States: In 2008, Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf States, did not have to deal with the rise of the anti-Gulf State Muslim Brotherhood, and were far less afraid of being the victims of a nuclear attack from Iran.
Syria: In 2008, the brutal anti-American, pro-Iranian dictator, Basher Assad, was the undisputed ruler of Syria. But since 2011, a rebellion of mostly Islamist groups, and also Kurds in the north, has split the country into three areas, with over 110,000 Syrians dead, some by the use of chemical weapons. Perhaps President Obama has heard of this crisis?
Tunisia: In 2008, Tunisia was run by another longtime, pro-American strongman, named Ben Ali. In 2011, there were massive demonstrations in the public which seemingly ignited the “Arab Spring” and new elections, which brought an Islamist party into power. There have also been riots, an attack against the U.S. Embassy, political killings and a rise in Islamist attacks on “non-Islamic” targets.
Turkey: In 2008, Turkey under the Erdogan regime was much less Islamist, far less troublesome for the region and far more stable in government. These days, Erdogan and Turkey have attracted notice for the increasing crackdown on domestic Turkish opponents; the imprisonment of journalists for their reporting – the largest number of press imprisoned in the world; and an explosion in the number of honor killings of women.
Yemen: In 2008, Yemen had not yet declared open war against al-Qaida. This war has since been declared and has steadily become bloodier. On May 21, 2012, al-Qaida claimed responsibility for a suicide bomb that detonated in a crowd of military personnel in a parade in Sana, which killed 96 and wounded more than 200, making it one of the deadliest attacks in Yemen’s history.
Overall, I do not see much evidence that even a single nation in the Middle East/Muslim world is more stable today than it was in 2008.
Further, a cursory glance at the rest of the world leads me to conclude that a clear majority (or plurality) of the nations of the world are NOT more stable now than they were in 2008. Since then there have been violent protests in France, a military coup in Honduras, an Islamist attack on a mall in Kenya, religious riots in Myanmar, an Islamist jihad against Christians in Nigeria and an increasingly shaky pseudo-communist regime in Venezuela. All of this is new instability from the world of 2008.
Yet, somehow, some way, President Obama and his advisers see a more stable world today.
Whether the president and his administration are delusional in general, we cannot say. Nevertheless, this particular belief of theirs, that since President Obama took office, the “world is more stable,” is delusional, assuming they really believe it.
There is sure to be serious consequences if the Obama administration does not awake from these delusions soon.
Adam Turner serves as staff counsel to the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET). He is a former counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee where he focused on national security law.
