Why are so many pundits shocked by Vladimir Putin’s foray into Crimea and the very real possibility he may push onward into the heart of Ukraine?
Why is Barack Obama and his entire foreign policy team so flummoxed by what appears to be a development that is predictable – maybe even inevitable?
Are you surprised?
I’m not.
I’m no expert on central Europe, but Russia is clearly acting in what it believes to be its own self-interest. Nations have a tendency to do that. The surprise is that some American leaders don’t – including Obama. They seem to live in a fantasy world in which sovereign nations don’t take calculated risks and only cower in fear in the face of idle threats from America.
Putin understands Russia is in decline due to demographic changes. Yet, it has a powerful military that has not been used much since 2008. Russia also has energy needed by Europe in the form of natural gas and oil. Without Russian energy, Europe will suffer grave economic consequences, especially given the continent’s capitulation to the environmentalist creed of “climate change.”
Russia has a shot at reasserting itself on the international stage and recapturing some of its power and influence, not to mention gaining economic status it never achieved under the false god of Communism.
It’s that simple.
There were warning shots fired six years ago in Georgia. Did the U.S. intervene when Russia invaded? No. Were there any serious consequences for Russia as a result of that attack on a sovereign nation? No.
No one came to Georgia’s side.
No one did when the Soviet Union invaded after Georgia declared its independence in 1918, either. The Soviet Union installed a puppet government in 1921. Georgia did not dare reassert its independence again until the fall of the Soviet Union.
On April 9, 1991, Georgia declared independence. There was internecine fighting through 1993 that resulted in massive carnage and a refugee crisis.
In 2008, Russia saw an opportunity to reclaim its former satellite.
On Aug. 7, 2008, Georgian forces began shelling disputed territory in South Ossetia. The Georgian army moved in. A Russian peacekeeping force was also shelled. Russian forces moved in.
A few days later, Russia halted military operations but remained in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Since the war, Georgia has maintained that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are under Russian occupation and remain, legally, part of Georgia. There was a great deal of international clamor about the Russian move – diplomatic talk, sanctions, etc. But no other nation came to Georgia’s side.
Who would? The place is a mess. It was too complicated even for the neighboring Russians to attempt a pacification effort. So the lines have remained in place, despite all the toothless international condemnation of Russia.
Amazingly, while all this was taking place in the East, America was convincing Ukraine it no longer needed a strong military. The West persuaded Ukraine to disarm, promising leaders NATO would come to its rescue if it were ever attacked by Russia.
Big mistake.
But it gets even worse.
The U.S. was behind some of the uprisings that took place in Ukraine beginning a few weeks ago. Those demonstrations and clashes were encouraged by Washington. They also provided the excuse Russia needed to assert authority over a strategic bridge to Europe.
That’s where we stand today, with a strong possibility Russia will roll up the rest of Ukraine, now that it controls Crimea.
Is the U.S. really going to get involved militarily in this theater?
No way! Not with the economic crisis Obama has exacerbated and fueled in the U.S. Not with U.S. military forces still in the process of withdrawing from other theaters around the world, places that seem no better off and perhaps worse off for interventions that lasted longer, cost more lives than anyone anticipated and broke the proverbial bank of the richest nation on earth. Not with the specter of nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia a possibility. Not with Obama’s popularity at all-time lows and the nation demoralized by a profound lack of leadership.
So what’s with all the bewilderment? What’s with all the shock and awe? Why all the astonishment and amazement that a sovereign nation with a history of acting in its own self-interest did just that?
What is the U.S. really going to do about it? What can we do – especially with Obama in charge and the U.S. sleepwalking in a malaise not experienced since the days of Jimmy Carter? What should we do?
The answer to that last question is nothing. It’s not our fight. There are far worse situations in the world about which we can and should do nothing.
America needs to get its own moral and spiritual act together and stop acting like the world’s policeman.
Media wishing to interview Joseph Farah, please contact [email protected].
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