An international organization says a surging fight between two warlords in South Sudan could leave thousands of children starving, even dead, by the end of the year.
The report from UNICEF calls out South Sudan President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, and blames their confrontations for the fact that as many as 50,000 children will be facing starvation over coming months.
The fighting has left the production and purchase of food below needed levels for the long-troubled African region. The inevitable result is starvation.
“There’s no question that the conflict has created havoc for the children,” said UNICEF Senior Adviser for Crisis Communication Sarah Crowe.
“The malnutrition crisis is one of many. If there was peace, it’s likely we wouldn’t have to be dealing with this severe of a crisis,” Crowe said.
The region is well known for violence. A years-long civil war in Sudan was broken a few years ago when it split into the Islam-dominated Sudan in the north, and South Sudan, which was intended as a refuge for Christians and others who were being slaughtered in Sudan under Islamic dictator Omar al-Bashir.
The two fighters in South Sudan have claimed to have Christian connections, with Kiir self-identifying as a Catholic and the former vice president reporting he was raised Presbyterian.
But Consultancy Africa intelligence analyst Maha Hamdan said it’s no more than two tribal warlords fighting for power.
“It’s tribal war between the majority Dinka tribe and the second-largest South Sudan tribe, the Nuer. Even worse, it’s a kind of savage fight between two rival warlords, the new country’s Dinka president, Salva Kiir Mayardit, and his Nuer former vice-president, Riak Machar Teny Dhurgon – who were seen as motivated by kleptocratic interests,” Hamdan said.
The analyst said the war has taken a terrible toll on the civilians and other non-combatants.
“This is where the tribal factor kicked in. Civilians are paying the price of the war with at least one million internally displace persons and 250,000 refugees abroad. That means that almost 16 percent of the population has been directly affected by the civil war,” Hamdan said.
Some reports from South Sudan say that the two factions have agreed to form a unity government.
But other reports suggest the truce is delicate and fighting may still be continuing.
Hamdan, who also has served on the staff of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, said Kiir has split South Sudanese into three factions.
“There are those who were 100 percent sure that siding with a continuing Kiir administration would ensure their continued capacity to steal. Then there are those who were unsure of their standing with the hard core and worried about their future,” Hamdan said.
Hamdan added that the third group isn’t sure of their future because they’re unsure of Kiir’s intentions.
“There are those who knew they would be out no matter what. Salva Kiir himself is in poor health and weary of carrying the burden of this dysfunctional state on his shoulders. He wanted to give up and not even run in 2015,” Hamdan said.
Christian Solidarity International USA President John Eibner says that even before the civil war started, the new country already had a refugee problem.
“There were already many displaced before the outbreak of the current rebellion, especially in Jongolei. There are also many displaced in Southern Sudan from the longstanding conflicts in Abyei, the Southern Blue Nile and the Nuba Mountains,” Eibner said.
Crowe says the number of children at risk because of the civil war is huge.
“Although there are few statistics currently available for malnutrition rates since the crisis began, even before the outbreak of the current conflict South Sudanese children were at very high risk from malnutrition, which makes children far more likely to die from other diseases and conditions.
“The most comprehensive figures are from 2012, when out of a total population of 1,725,678 children under five years old, 39,515 died. The principal causes were neonatal mortality, pneumonia, diarrhea, and malaria. However, according to figures from childinfo.com, half of the mortality of children under the age of five is attributable to under-nutrition in South Sudan,” Crowe said.
The refugee situation in South Sudan is severe, with reports of thousands of refugees flowing into neighboring Uganda and Ethiopia, but Eibner says accurate numbers are almost impossible.
“No one can verify such numbers in a place like South Sudan, where access is so difficult. But such a figure is probably a credible pointer to the gravity of the South Sudanese humanitarian crisis. Hundred of thousands have surely been displaced because of the fighting since December in Jongolei, Upper Nile and Unity States,” Eibner said.
Hamdan says there are likely over one million refugees, but doubts the U.N.’s ability to give any significant assistance because the U.N. has almost no money. She also says U.S. involvement isn’t helpful.
“Our intelligence bodies have no clue of cultural backgrounds of countries. In-depth understanding of the cultures help in understanding their political systems,” Hamdan said.
Eibner said that despite reports of fighters from Sudan joining the civil war on both sides, one positive note may be that no foreign governments seem to be involved.
“It appears, at least for the time being, the rebellion against the government in Juba is contained within territories where the Nuer tribe dominates, and I do not have the impression that the rebel leadership is supported materially from abroad,” Eibner said.
WND reported in January that South Sudan appeared to be heading for civil war, but added that in a tweet, Kiir expressed a desire to resolve the tribal rivalry question peacefully.
“We are ready to turn every stone to achieve peace,” he said at the time. “We’ve gone to Addis Ababa for peace and we will return to people of South Sudan with peace.”
The peace talks are ongoing, but Hamdan isn’t optimistic that they will bring any result.
