BEIRUT, Lebanon – The U.S. agreement to extend talks with Iran for another six months has implications beyond whether or not the Islamic regime will gain the capacity to build a nuclear weapon, according to a report from Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.
A number of Middle East experts have said the agreement worries Saudi Arabia, as Riyadh sees Iran as its main sectarian adversary in the historic Sunni-Shiite battle over influence in the region.
The extension was made without much fanfare, since both the U.S. and Iran need each other in the region to counter a far greater and more immediate mutual threat, ISIS.
Sources say the U.S. was quick to extend the talks, because Iran has made concessions in the enrichment of its uranium that satisfy Washington for now.
Meanwhile, Turkey, the sources say, sees Iran as buoying up the Iranian-backed Shiite government in Baghdad. The intervention interferes with Ankara’s interest in drawing closer to the Iraqi Kurds for future energy deals and asserting itself as the “moderate” Sunni influence in the region.
For that reason, the sources say, ISIS is not the main problem for the Turks. It’s the continued existence of the Shiite-Alawite regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is allied with Iran.
Taken together, the emergence of ISIS has changed the geopolitical complexion of the Middle East and Washington’s relations with the three major countries in the region, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Transnational state
ISIS has affected the relations in a way that al-Qaida never could, simply through military conquests that have resulted in territorial gains to establish a caliphate. Al-Qaida carried out only periodic attacks and never took over territory.
ISIS’ military movements, in effect, have created a transnational state that is greater than the size of Great Britain.
ISIS has given Turkey the opportunity to assert itself more in Iraq, and it needs Syria’s Assad out of the way to gain access to the rich oil fields in the Kurdish-held areas of Iraq.
Sources say the U.S. wants Turkey to bring in troops to fight ISIS in Syria. Turkey could be tempted to do that but only if it unseats the Assad government and allows Ankara to install a pro-Turkey, Sunni government.
If Turkey were to introduce its troops into Syria, however, a source told WND that Iran would react strongly and bring its own troops to Syria to preserve the Assad government, setting up a potential Turkish-Iranian conflict.
Such an event could be challenging for Turkey, since it hasn’t fielded troops on any scale since the Korean War. However, Iran’s forces have had more recent battlefield experience in the Iran-Iraq war and would defend the Assad government.
Lip service
To date, however, the Obama administration has given lip service to Assad’s removal. The priority for now is targeting ISIS in Syria, not the regime, sources say.
And as WND has reported, ISIS is receptive to Turkish businesses coming into ISIS-held portions of Iraq. In addition, Turkey continues to receive oil shipments at below-market prices from ISIS-captured Iraqi oil refineries.
Ankara also is looking to do more business with the Iraqi Kurds in northern Iraq, to the consternation of the Baghdad government, which seeks to maintain some semblance of central control over the country. This comes despite Kurdish efforts to resist ISIS’ military advances. ISIS could prevail if the Kurds don’t receive the necessary military support from the U.S. and the anti-ISIS coalition.
At the same time, Turkey doesn’t want ISIS to do anything to the Iraqi Kurds that will prompt Turkish Kurds – a large vocal minority – to rise up against Ankara.
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