“As a Democrat, you must be so depressed starting off this new year with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress.” With those words, legendary San Francisco talk-show host Ronn Owens greeted me when I sat down for an interview this week during his annual visit to Washington.
My answer: Not so much. Sure, I wish Democrats controlled both the House and Senate – by majorities big enough to get significant legislation passed. And I fear that this 114th Congress could turn out even more feckless than the last, producing nothing but more partisan posturing. At the same time, maybe because I’m an eternal optimist, I still see a glimmer of hope for something better.
In truth, all the ingredients are in place for this new Congress to go in one of two directions: total gridlock; or actual progress on some important issues. And which way it goes is mainly up to one man: Speaker John Boehner.
What are those necessary ingredients? Let’s start with the fact that both Democrats and Republicans need a positive record to tout in the 2016 presidential election. Democrats can’t just blame lack of progress on Republican obstructionism. And Republicans – in this national election, unlike the mid-terms – can’t win by just being Sarah Palin’s “The Party of Hell No!” Mitt Romney tried that in 2012. It didn’t work so well.
On top of that, President Obama knows he has two more years to burnish his legacy and, like any president, he’d like to leave on a high note. Sure, he’ll do as much as he can by using “his pen and his phone,” but he’d prefer to work with Congress and he can only accomplish the substantive changes necessary – on immigration reform, for example – through congressional legislation. Plus, Obama has often (too often, in my humble opinion) demonstrated his willingness to make a deal. For him, compromise is not a dirty word.
The next critical player is new Senate Leader Mitch McConnell. You may not like his politics, but give him credit for this: McConnell’s an old-fashioned wheeler-deal politician, in the best sense of the word. For the last six years, he’s been the single most obstructionist member of the Senate. But he’s smart enough to know that strategy won’t play in his new job. He’ll have to call on his old skills as the consummate deal-maker in order to get things done, both to help his party and to help sketch his own reputation in history.
McConnell’s first challenge is to pick issues Americans really care about – like jobs, stagnant wages, education, immigration reform and climate change. He’s already off to a bad start, making approval of the Keystone Pipeline and repeal of the Medical Device Tax his top two priorities. Seriously? With oil and gas prices at record lows, nobody but the Koch Brothers cares about the Keystone Pipeline anymore. That’s a definite Obama veto. And the only people opposed to the Medical Device Tax are manufacturers of medical hardware who are making a fortune today, thanks to Obamacare, and can afford to pay a 2.3 percent sales tax.
Which brings us to the most important player of all: Speaker Boehner. Curiously enough, Boehner, like McConnell, also comes from the old-fashioned school of politics: “Let’s make a deal!” Remember the “Grand Bargain” he personally struck with President Obama, before he was stabbed in the back by then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor? It doesn’t mean that Boehner would totally capitulate, or surrender his basic principles. Let Boehner be Boehner: He’d fight for what he thinks is in the best interest of the American people, but settle for the best he can get – then come back again another day and fight for the rest. So would McConnell. So would Obama. And so would Nancy Pelosi.
Boehner’s problem is that, so far, he’s been unwilling to stand up to tea party members of his own caucus, for whom compromise is anathema and any contact with Obama is treason. But there are already encouraging signs he’s getting tired of that game. In the new issue of Politico magazine, Boehner tells Glenn Thrush he thinks GOP capture of the Senate will make cooperation with Democrats the “rule rather than the exception.” And he’s already demonstrated some backbone by dumping three tea party opponents from key committees, and more heads are expected to roll.
See what I mean? Why be depressed? This Congress might actually get back to work.
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