If the 2016 presidential battle is compared to a horse race, Donald Trump is the odds-on favorite. He shot out of the starting gate like a bullet and with a sure-footed gallop left his competitors in the dust. He has taken the lead, and so far there is nothing to stop him.
Right now the stars are aligned and he can do no wrong. Nothing he says or does seems to deter eager Republican voters from supporting him. His timing seems to be perfect. He has toyed with entering the race in the past, but it just wasn’t quite right. The ducks were not quite in a row. Now it seems in 2016 that they are – at least for now.
Even the news cycle is cooperating. Over the past few weeks during Trumps campaign stops and speeches, he has hammered home the point that China is a major problem for our economy, and he has promised that out of all the candidates he can fix it. Trump has the track record to deal with major financial issues involving foreign countries, so he knows what he is talking about. Over the past week the Chinese currency was devalued, and we saw repercussions in the world markets. On Monday, the bottom dropped out of the U.S. markets due to the fears about China – and just as he was with immigration, Trump was ahead of the curve.
Now, every news outlet is scrambling to get his take on what is next and how he foresaw all of this, which is only adding fuel to his already roaring fire.
I’m watching all of this with caution, however. The 2016 election is a long way away, and like they say, “anything can happen.” I like Trump. I think he is just what we need right now because he is saying the things no one else will say and forcing the other candidates to step up their game. We need that because our party has wimped out for far too long. But does Trump have the staying power? Can he be like Secretariat or American Pharoah and keep the lead from starting gate to finish line?
Right now the Republican field has more candidates than a baseball team. At last count there were 17 running for the prize. We all know that the number will start to shrink, most likely within the next few weeks. With a few candidates already struggling for money, losing backers or just not getting the media face time they need, the field will begin to narrow.
By early January it will be pretty clear who the front-runners will be. I think we will see Trump, Bush, Rubio and either Cruz or Carson emerge as the top four. I love Carly Fiorina, but I don’t know if she has garnered the money or support to last.
That means that all of the others, Kasich, Jindal, Paul, Christie, etc. will be out, and their supporters will have to go somewhere. So, do the majority of those voters go to Trump, keeping him at the top? Or do they gravitate toward the establishment candidates and push one of them into the No. 1 spot? If the Republican elites have their way, you will see a big push for Bush. That is when we will see if Trumps appeal goes beyond just the disenchanted, angry voters. If Trump can succeed in gathering up the votes of the fallen, then he very well could be the nominee.
On the other hand, if Trump sees that as each candidate drops out, their support is going toward say Rubio or Cruz, will he be content to keep funneling his own money into a race he knows he can’t win? Trump is a businessman; he will cut his losses if he doesn’t see a win.
If it becomes inevitable that he won’t be the nominee, Trump is not a guy who ever wants to be seen as a loser. We all know that his ego is way too huge for that. So, he surveys the playing field, explains his position to his supporters in language that makes sense to them, and then he becomes the “kingmaker.”
At that point, Trump will gather his supporters (which will more than likely still be a huge group of Americans) and funnel them toward the candidate he chooses to back. Whomever he decides to anoint as his choice will undoubtedly go on to win the nomination and more than likely the presidency. Trump will be in the catbird seat and could possibly be a very powerful voice in government. It could ultimately be a battle between Trump and the Republican establishment on who eventually crowns the nominee.
Still, if the current atmosphere continues to be the same throughout 2016, and if things continue to deteriorate in a downward spiral, Trump could pull out a win. The American voters are a tricky group, and you never know what they might do. Disenchantment worked in 1980 for Reagan and then again with Obama, so Trump could very well be our next “American Pharoah.”
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