ISIS on ropes? Not so fast, say U.S. intel experts

ISIS fighters (Wikimedia)

WASHINGTON – Two former U.S. intelligence officials dispute a British terror expert's belief that ISIS and its caliphate could be wiped out within hours now that Russia has begun airstrikes over Syria and will expand the bombing to Iraq.

Afzal Ashraf of the London think-tank Royal United Services Institute recently told the London Express that with Russian airstrikes, chaotic ISIS leadership and mass defections, the ISIS caliphate could be wiped out within "hours."

Contending the military capabilities of ISIS have been vastly overplayed, Ashraf said ISIS built up a "superhero" image of itself after the Iraqi army fell apart when it was confronted last year.

"But that was not very much to do with their ability to fight," he said. "It was to do with the Iraqi army, which just doesn't have a leadership that inspires."

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Consequently, Ashraf said, ISIS has given the impression it is far more capable than it actually is.

"If we had serious forces fighting in a coordinated battle against these people, they wouldn't last very long at all," he said.

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However, Clare Lopez, a former operations officer of the Central Intelligence Agency and now vice president of research and analysis at the Washington-based Center for Security Policy, believes just the opposite may be true.

"The assessment seems a bit optimistic," Lopez told WND. "(Russian) airstrikes certainly can take a toll on ISIS, but without a heavy sustained ground campaign to accompany it, an air campaign alone will never defeat ISIS."

Bearing the load

Separate reports indicate Moscow is prepared to deploy its Spetznaz, or special forces, troops in Syria to combat ISIS concentrations, especially where the leadership may be located.

In addition, Syrian Kurds having been bearing the brunt of ground offenses against ISIS, Syrian military forces and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah,

For months, the Kurds have sought massive amounts of U.S. military assistance, but because of arrangements with neighboring Turkey to use its Incirlik Airbase from which to launch airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, the U.S. has not provided the needed support.

In addition to allowing use of its base, Turkey also agreed to launch attacks in Syria against ISIS. However, almost all Turkish airstrikes have been against Kurdish concentrations, creating a potential political backlash in Turkey that sources have told WND could lead to a civil war.

Questioning the ability to launch ground offenses against ISIS, Lopez said the obstacles are formidable, ruling out ISIS falling within hours, as Ashraf asserts.

"Remember how much territory, how many men and resources this group commands," Lopez said.

"Instead of collapse, I would expect to see a strong pushback and an influx of new volunteers, funding and other backing," she said.

"You will recall, too, how and why ISIS came to be, as a regional Sunni counter to aggressive Shiite expansionism," Lopez said. "None of that has diminished. Quite the contrary.

"So I don't think the alarm level of regional Sunnis will have diminished in the wake of recent events either," she added. "So, neither will the determination to stand against this newest escalation."

Well-armed and well-funded

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. William G. "Jerry" Boykin, who was the deputy under secretary of defense for intelligence from 2002 to 2007, similarly questioned the British terror expert's assessment of ISIS.

He said Ashraf's assessment "is not credible in my view."

"ISIS is well armed because of all the U.S. equipment that the Iraqis have left behind. ISIS is also well-funded because of the oil (dollars) and the bank robberies and extortion they have been involved in. That allows them to buy tribal leaders and to purchase modern communications and materiel."

Boykin, in an email to WND, pointed out that ISIS is guided by an ideology that cannot be defeated only through "kinetic solutions."

"We all know that Russia is not bombing ISIS," Boykin said. "They are hitting targets that are immediate threats to Assad."

Some of these targets include the Free Syrian Army, whose members, Boykin said, are not "freedom lovers and they are not much better than ISIS."

"The Russians want to keep Assad in power so they can keep their base at Tartus on the Mediterranean," he said. "They also want to demonstrate how powerful they are by making the U.S. look foolish."

Boykin didn't think, however, that the Russians would go so far as to bomb targets in Turkey, which would prompt a response by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which Turkey is a member.

Boykin urged the arming of the Kurds "directly and put a robust Spec Ops (Special Operations) presence on the ground to target ISIS throughout Iraq and then do the same in Syria, again using Kurds as the ground force, supported by U.S. Spec Ops units."

He also urged the establishment of safe zones near the Turkish and Jordanian borders.

"Russia should be given a stern warning to stay out or risk being shot down," Boykin said.

"While ISIS may be having some problems with defections," he said, "they are also gaining new support from other Islamic groups, so it pretty much balances out."