(Salon) -- That loud, low rumbling noise you hear outside isn’t another fracking earthquake. Indeed, it’s political internet going indiscriminately bananas after a new poll showed Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump in the forthcoming Iowa caucus. But clearly anyone predicting Cruz’s ascendancy in Iowa, including very serious pundits like Chris Cillizza, is suffering from a tragically short attention span.
A few points:
1) Iowa isn’t a GOP bellwether. Recent history has proved that winning the Iowa caucus is no indication of a broader victory, at least for the Republicans who’ve handed meaningless Iowa victories to both Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in 2008 and 2012 respectively. Sure, digging deeper into the record books shows candidates like George W. Bush and Bob Dole winning in Iowa then moving on to the nomination. This trend could change again, but the last two caucuses show that even if Cruz holds onto his lead and wins Iowa, it could be a one-hit-wonder victory. This leads us to the next point…
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