Why Trump could win California

The more I study the 2016 presidential race, the more I think Donald Trump could redraw the conventional political map.

For instance, all the political pundits agree that Democratic presidential nominees start out winning New York, California, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Those are 18 states, plus the District of Columbia, that for the last six consecutive presidential elections have handed the Democratic nominee 242 electoral votes.

They're automatic, we're told.

And only 28 more electoral votes have to be found to win.

To put this in perspective, a win in Florida is all a Democrat nominee needs to ensure getting to the White House.

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But is this assumption correct?

Is there a way a Republican nominee in 2016 could actually break through this logjam and create a kind of political realignment by stealing one or more of these states?

Let's pretend for a moment that GOP front-runner Donald Trump is the nominee. Could he win any of those states?

I think he could.

In fact, I think he could win the biggest prize of all of them – California.

Why do I say that?

For the simple reason I haven't seen a single poll matching up Trump and Hillary in California. That suggests the media are either hiding the facts or they're too ugly to report. A third option is that none of those media organizations dares even ask the question.

We've already seen in recent polls that Trump is doing far better among likely minority voters than any recent Republican candidate – far better. What does that mean? For almost every minority voter who votes for Trump, it's like getting two votes – the one he gets and the one he takes away.

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But there's more.

California may appear to be a safe state for any Democrat, but I'm not so sure. Remember who surprised everyone by winning the governorship of California? Arnold Schwarzenegger. So what? What do Schwarzenegger and Trump have in common? One word: CELEBRITY. Californians, more than residents of any other state, love celebrities. And, right now, who is the biggest celebrity in the world? Do I even need to answer that question?

California is the state that gave Ronald Reagan, an actor, his first success in politics – rewarding him with the governorship. I know that was a long time ago, but, is it possible Californians have had enough of solid Democratic rule in recent years? It's been a one-party state, and, from my experience as a former Californian, it's due for a change. I mean, there's a reason so many people have been leaving the Golden State in recent years.

I want to see the polling.

If it's even close right now, Trump has a chance to make history – not just by winning the presidency, but winning big – winning going away.

Wouldn't that be something?

Stranger things have happened.

Who says these solidly Democratic states are going to remain, in perpetuity, solidly Democratic until the end of time?

If ever there were a wild-card election year, this is it. If ever there were a wild-card candidate, Trump is it. If ever there were a time for a political sea change in the making, it's 2016.

And, if not California, do you really believe Trump can't win some of these other states? He's done a lot for New York, but I think California is a better match. How about New Jersey or Pennsylvania?

I think anything is possible with Trump.

He's got the name recognition. He's got the money. And he's shown he can dominate the coverage of an election year already – far eclipsing nearly a score of other Republicans and the Democrats to boot.

Does anyone else see what I see?

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