Now that the real voting for the presidential nominating process has begun, we are beginning to see a definite pattern in the direction this is all heading.
There is no doubt Hillary Clinton will be the nominee on the Democratic side. That is, if she isn't indicted. If the FBI does recommend charges, then Joe Biden likely will be trotted out, because there is no way on earth the Democrats will allow Bernie Sanders to be the nominee. If she's not indicted (which I predict), then she will be the nominee. She already has the superdelegates in her pocket, so it was a rigged game from the get-go. We all know that Bernie was only there to make it look like a competition. The Dems just didn't anticipate that his message would resonate like it did. In the end, it backfired, because his strength just made her look like a weaker candidate instead of the "strong woman" image the party wanted.
On the Republican side, we have a strong front-runner in Donald Trump. He has become "Teflon Don" because not even a dust-up with the pope could derail his momentum! Trump decisively took New Hampshire and then swept almost the entire state of South Carolina in every category. Spending less money than any of the other candidates, he steamrolled over the competition. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are battling for second place, and Bush packed up and went home.
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With the departure of Bush and the low numbers for the final two, Kasich and Carson, it will be interesting to see where we go from here. The pundits are all assuming that Bush supporters will gravitate toward Rubio, but I'm not so sure. He may get some of those votes, but they could possibly go to Kasich because there seemed to be bad blood between the Florida candidates during the debates. Plus Kasich is more of the same type of persona as Bush, and if voters go by personality, Kasich is a comfortable bet with Bush out.
The real upset was for Ted Cruz. For all intents and purposes, he should have walked away handily with the evangelical vote in South Carolina, but that wasn't the case. Trump garnered a huge amount of evangelicals, which showed the pundits and academics that not all of the faithful only vote "religious beliefs." I think it was a wake-up call and a final confirmation that maybe, indeed, Trump could win this thing.
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The longer we have a five-man race the better it is for Trump. He can stay out in front and gather up delegates while the rest of the pack hammer each other in the background. I predict that the establishment will go all in for Rubio. Already they are lining up the big guns in many states to give him their endorsements. But even with Gov. Nikki Haley, Rep. Trey Gowdy and Sen. Tim Scott rushing to his aid, Rubio still couldn't cut Trump off at the pass. Trump still won the South Carolina vote by a decisive margin, and no one can discount that.
So what if it does finally come down to Trump vs. Hillary? Many of the "so-called" finest political analysts say that Trump can't beat her in the general election. With their chalkboards, graphs and polling data, they point out that Trump would be crushed by her in a one-on-one battle. Really? Most point to Trumps unfavorable ratings, but then they have to point to Hillary's as well. Both of them have a large percentage of people who don't "like" them, but when it comes to who voters trust to do the job, Trump wins. Plus, who among us can't wait for the cage fight between Trump and Hillary when we get to their debates? Grab the popcorn, because this has to be the most bizarre election in United States history.
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When the field finally narrows down to two, the biggest question for the Democrats is: Where do Bernie Sanders' voters go? Do they rally around Hillary? I highly doubt it. Oh sure, some will, but not the majority. Democratic turnout is nowhere near where it was for Barack Obama, so the enthusiasm is down all around. The only excitement right now is for Bernie, and once his voters find out that this whole game has been rigged in her favor, you can be sure that they won't be getting off the couch to stand in line for Hillary.
I think that the momentum for Trump will keep building. As time passes, he seems to be looking a bit more "presidential." There is no doubt, whatever you think of him, he's a smart man and knows how to play his audience.
Another factor to consider is who the two nominees pick for their running mates. If Hillary even has an inkling that she can't win without Bernie supporters, would she consider picking him? My guess is that she will go with a more radical choice like San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, or maybe Martin O'Malley. I doubt that she would pick Elizabeth Warren; she doesn't want a big personality taking her thunder.
Trump could go a number of different ways. He could pull the "woman card" and put in Gov. Haley or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez. Or he could go with Sen. Kelly Ayotte who is strong on defense and national security. Then again, there is always Oprah! If he finds that he needs a swing state locked up, maybe Kasich would be a good bet.
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In any event, this could all just be speculation. Hillary could get indicted and face charges. Trump could somehow implode and stumble to Cruz or Rubio, or there really could be a revolution among voters and Bernie Sanders takes it all! Whatever the outcome, I've got my front row seat.
Media wishing to interview Morgan Brittany, please contact [email protected].
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