Which one of these statements is true? "Donald Trump is a racist, bigot, misogynist, buffoon and con artist who should never be seriously considered as a candidate for president." Or: "Donald Trump is a serious candidate for president who could defy the odds and actually be elected 45th president of the United States."
Which one of these statements is true? The answer, of course, is that they're both true. And therein lies both the fascination and the danger in this year's presidential election. It's true that we've never seen a more personally disgusting candidate for president. But it's also true, as members of his own party learned too late, that those Democrats who belittle his political appeal are making a big political mistake.
We all heard cocky Democrats chortling out loud on Super Tuesday, as The Donald chalked up another string of primary victories, making a total of 10 so far: "Oh, boy, we can't wait. Donald Trump's our dream opponent. Democrats will flock to the polls to vote against him. He'll be the best get-out-the-vote motivator Democrats could ever want."
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Not so fast. Haven't they noticed? Yes, come November Trump may inspire Democrats to turn out to vote, but he's already inspired Republicans to turn out to vote, millions of them for the first time. In Massachusetts, Virginia and Tennessee, Republican voters have turned out in record-breaking numbers. In Nevada, Trump's vote alone surpassed the entire voter turnout in the 2012 election.
Yet in those same states, Democrats have turned out to vote in far fewer numbers. In Nevada, for example, where caucuses in 2008 attracted 120,000 Democrats, only 80,000 bothered to show up this year. And in Virginia, Democratic turnout was down an average 30 percent. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders have turned voters on or out the way Donald Trump has.
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Why? In part, because he's a reality TV star. For The Donald's voters, celebrity-worship trumps public policy. They don't care what he says or stands for. Indeed, as we've seen, there's nothing he could say that will turn his followers away. He could muse about dating his own daughter, brag about his extramarital affairs, belittle women as "bimbos," denounce all Muslims as terrorists and declare war on all Latinos. He could even pretend to know nothing about the KKK and refuse to repudiate the support of David Duke. He is, as Mitt Romney describes him, a "fraud, a con man and a flake." Yet Trump's fans will still vote for him – because he's famous.
But there's more to it, of course. Trump's appeal is also based on the fact that he – alone among Republican candidates – has tapped into the sense of alienation millions of Americans feel toward the political establishment. People look at Washington and see a deck stacked against them and politicians getting paid a lot of money for doing nothing. Meanwhile, American jobs disappear to Mexico or Asia, wages are frozen where they were 20 years ago, everything from college to cabbage is more expensive, most of the newfound wealth they hear about goes to the people at the very top, and they have less money in their pocket to spend. Along comes a bombastic billionaire, apparently beholden to no one, who promises to upend the establishment and fight for them. Bingo. Political gold.
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Among Democrats, Bernie Sanders speaks to the same frustration with politics as usual. The only difference is that he offers substantive ideas for change, while Trump offers them nothing. And, even though Sanders has inspired millions of young people to get involved in politics for the first time, he hasn't done so to the same degree as Donald Trump.
All of which adds up to: Democrats should be spending less time popping champagne corks at the prospect of running against Donald Trump and more time figuring out how to beat him. As John Nichols warns in The Nation, Trump's combination of winning message and popular appeal could cause trouble in November, especially in industrial swing states "where Trump's promise to protect jobs and change trade policies could resonate among blue-collar workers."
We may be dismayed that Donald Trump has been so successful in the primaries and may actually be the GOP nominee. But unless Democrats take him seriously and, unlike his Republican opponents, unmask and destroy him early, we may someday be dismayed to see him take the oath of office as the 45th president of the United States.
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