The public perception of where the 2016 presidential race stands has been affected much more by Big Media wishful thinking than the actual preferences of the American people.
That is the takeaway of the most recent L.A. Times/USC poll – one that does daily tracking with a carefully selected group of about 3,000 U.S. citizens on the basis of demographics that represent the national voting pool.
For the Big Media, the race is over. Hillary is going to win in a historic landslide that may even result in a change of control of the Congress.
This began when Hillary Clinton got to what we are being told was a double-digit lead in several polls.
Thus, the narrative was written – in mid-August, way before Labor Day, when things start to get serious.
Then came the shocker over the weekend, when the latest L.A. Times poll was released.
It's unclear whether the author of the analysis story that accompanied the poll data even looked at the new numbers.
The results showed Donald Trump in the lead.
But what was the headline on the story?
"New poll analysis finds a wasted summer for Donald Trump and a boost for Hillary Clinton."
No, I am not kidding. That is how the L.A. Times analysis story is headlined. Read it for yourself.
I've been in the news business for over 40 years. There's a term for that story. It's called burying the lead. It's a cardinal sin in the newsroom.
For weeks since the two conventions ended, the media have gleefully reported polls showing Clinton winning by 8-10 points. Yet this new one shows Trump edging Clinton 44.2 percent to 43.6 percent – a statistical tie within the margin of error.
Is that not news?
Not to the L.A. Times. And not to any other major media outlet apparently. Doesn't fit the narrative.
They want you to believe the race is over.
And they have even convinced Trump and Clinton voters alike that it is over.
When you get past the presidential preference part of the survey, you find that overwhelmingly Americans believe Hillary is going to trounce Trump.
In other words, if this poll is right, some 54.7 percent of voters believe Hillary will win, while only 39.6 believe Trump will.
What could cause such a wide disparity between presidential preference and voter opinion about who will win?
Clearly it is media wishful thinking. The real impact the media have had on the race to date is to convince Americans that the race is over – even many of those who prefer Trump.
The media have also reported extensively and universally that Trump's attempt over the last week to appeal to black and other minority voters has failed miserably. Yet, the L.A. Times poll shows Trump jumping from 1 percent of the black vote to 13.6 percent in that same time period. Clinton, meanwhile, lost support from a high of 90 percent of the black vote to 80 percent.
Likewise, according the poll, Trump surged among Hispanics, topping 30 percent – significantly higher than either Mitt Romney in 2012 or John McCain in 2008.
What about the gender gap?
It's still there, but Trump scores higher among men than Clinton does among women.
Was this poll out of left field? Was it a statistical anomaly?
It does appear so, as another survey released about the same time by the Pew Research Center, shows Trump narrowing the gap with Clinton to 4 percent – with Clinton at 41 percent and Trump at 37 percent. The Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson, and the Green party candidate, Jill Stein, each scored just over 4 percent each, the survey found.
My conclusion?
The media are having a bigger impact on persuading Americans that Hillary is going to win than they are convincing them to vote for her.
This race is far from over.
Media wishing to interview Joseph Farah, please contact [email protected].
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