Why GOP's tax cut won't save it from political disaster

(AMERICAN PROSPECT)

By Paul Waldman

Donald Trump lies so often that when he tells unadorned truths it can be a shock. But sometimes it happens when he forgets to spin, as it was when he was speaking to a group of wealthy friends at a dinner at Mar-a-Lago last Friday. "You all just got a lot richer," he told to the well-heeled diners, referring to the tax cuts he had just signed.

And they certainly did, despite the endless assurances that the bill was really aimed at the struggling middle class. That's particularly true if Trump's guests own lots of stock, because the bill's centerpiece, the cut in the corporate tax rate, will in all likelihood be mostly passed on to shareholders, in the form of dividends and share price-boosting efforts like stock buybacks.

Republicans in Washington, however, are holding out hope that before long, the American middle class will understand how the tax bill has transformed their lives, then reward the GOP accordingly. Once the inevitable tide of prosperity washes across the land, voters enjoying their newfound wealth and happiness will flock to the polls to pull the lever for Republican candidates.

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So will that actually happen? Or to put it in terms closer to reality, is this first (and perhaps last) significant accomplishment of the Trump presidency going to save their party from electoral disaster in 2018?

Anything's possible, but the chances are slim.

Let's be clear about one thing to begin: Initially, the bill does indeed give a cut to most taxpayers. Most of those individual cuts phase out over time, so that by 2027 over half of taxpayers will actually see their taxes go up, but most people will see a cut at first. The problem is that the bill is so complex that it's nearly impossible for the average person to figure out whether they're getting a cut or not, which will limit the degree to which people will feel like they've been given a gift.

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