Rising oceans. Flooded shorelines. Horrific storms. Cold winters. Hot summers. An Arctic without ice or snow. Water flooding into the 9/11 memorial in New York. You’ve heard all the dire warnings about what global warming is doing.
But there’s a new one: It’s causing immigration.
“International negotiations on climate change, along with recent upsurge in migration across the Mediterranean Sea, have highlighted the need to better understand the possible effects of climate change on human migration – in particular, across national borders,” authors Anouch Missirian and Wolfram Schlenker say in their paper, “Asylum Applications Respond to Temperature Fluctuations.”
“Here we examine how, in the recent past (2000-2014), weather variations in 103 source countries translated into asylum applications to the European Union, which averaged 351,000 per year in our sample.
“We find that temperatures that deviated from the moderate optimum (~20°C) increased asylum applications in a nonlinear fashion, which implies an accelerated increase under continued future warming,” they wrote.
“Holding everything else constant, asylum applications by the end of the century are predicted to increase, on average, by 28 percent (98,000 additional asylum applications per year) under representative concentration pathway scenario 4.5 and by 188 percent (660,000 additional applications per year) under RCP 8.5 for the 21 climate models in the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections.”
They wrote: “Weather-induced conflicts in developing countries spill over to developed countries through asylum applications. One approach to estimate the future impacts of climate change is to look at the effects of weather fluctuations. These transient shocks can be interpreted analytically as randomly distributed treatments appliced to countries around the world.”
The writers said they analyzed those “shocks” by looking at various countries’ applications for asylum.
The abstract didn’t mention ISIS, civil war in Syria, an unstable government in Iran and Iraq, and many of the other drivers behind general instability across the Middle East or northern Africa, including the existence of Muslim terrorism that in recent years has killed thousands of Christians and people of other minority faiths.
That, he wrote, “let to economic and social strife there.”
He made a passing concession to the fact that other factors, such as a civil war involving Muslim terrorists, may be an influence.
“Separating out the influences of climate change from general social instability may be impossible, because they are intimately linked. But we do know that climate change can cause social and economic instability,” he commented. “We also know that these instabilities can boil over into larger problems that lead to mass exodus. The problem isn’t knowing the connection between climate and refugees exists – rather the problem is quantifying it.”
He warned that if there already are “climate-related migrations, can you imagine what’s in store in the next few decades as temperatures and extreme weather continue to increase?”
However, a recent report at the global warming-centric NoTrickZone documents that there has been little to no “warming” in the last 20 years.
And just recently, Nature Geoscience published a study admitting that computer modeling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming.
Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and one of the study’s authors, told the Times newspaper of London: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.”
According to the Times, another of the paper’s authors, Michael Grubb, a professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admitted his earlier forecasting models had overplayed how temperatures would rise.
Scientists skeptical of the theory of man-caused climate change argue that satellite and weather balloon readings show only 0.28 degrees Celsius warming since 1979, a rate that would equal less than 0.75 degrees Celsius over 100 years.
Steven Hayward, in a post for the Powerline blog, pointed out that the most ambitious global effort to combat climate change, the Paris Climate Accord, even if fully implemented, promises to barely slow global warming, noting former NASA chief James Hansen called the agreement “a fraud.”
Abraham comments about the newest study: “The researchers identified 103 countries that contributed to asylum applications to the European Union. Collectively, these nations submitted 350,000 applications to the EU per year. The authors combed the weather histories from these 103 source sites and explored how the weather varied in the 2000–2014 time period.
“They found that when temperatures in agricultural areas and seasons at the source countries varied away from an optimal value (of about 20°C), the number of people seeking asylum increased. And the increase wasn’t just proportional. They found it was nonlinear, meaning that initial increases in temperature only mildly changed the asylum application numbers. But as temperatures varied more and more, the number of seekers increased more quickly. ”
As a result, they claim that in the future asylum applications will continue to rise.
He said the authors told him: “The significance of our paper is that we are not looking at impacts in particular countries, but spillovers in the form of asylum applications. Most economic damage assessments examine the direct impact on a country, but countries are interlinked. So even if most of the economic damages occur in developing countries, there might be repercussions for developed countries.”
President Trump recently dropped global warming, or climate change, as it’s become known since temperatures ceased rising, from the list of national security threats.
President Obama had claimed it was urgent.
He once told Coast Guard personnel “climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security, an immediate risk to national security.”
“We need to act and we need to act now,” he declared. “Isn’t that the true hallmark of leadership. When you’re on deck, you stay vigilant, you plan for every contingency. If you see storm clouds gathering … you don’t sit back and do nothing. You take action. Anything less is negligence. It is a dereliction of duty.
“So, too, with climate change,” he continued. “Denying it or refusing to deal with it endangers our national security.”
The claims that human-caused “global warming” is creating a catastrophe actually is a frequent target of ridicule these days.
Hot summers, intense winter storms — textbook climate change phenomena. If we got to work, we could anticipate problems and avoid them. We’re headed the wrong direction right now. https://t.co/nMmZ71gCv5
— Bill Nye (@BillNye) January 10, 2018
On Monday, TV personality Bill Nye, who promotes himself as “the science guy,” said on Twitter: “Hot summers, intense winter storms – textbook climate change phenomena. If we got to work, we could anticipate problems and avoid them. We’re headed the wrong direction right now.”
To which Twitchy responded: “As far as we know, summer has always been hot and winter has always been cold … soi pretty sure this line of thinking from Billy Nye and the New York Times is well, dumb.”
Continued the report, “Bill Nye the ‘Doesn’t Understand Seasons’ Guy?
“And he says we can control it? YES, WE HAVE ALWAYS WANNED TO CONTROL WINTER. Out with you, evil snow!”
Millions of people from Syria and its neighbors have flooded into Europe in recent years, sparking a surge in crime and other problems. In the United States, Obama facilitated a flood of immigrants from Muslim nations, and federal judges have prevented full implementation of Trump’s order to curb immigration and the entry of people from certain countries that harbor terrorism.