Traditional wisdom has it that the party not holding the White House picks up seats in Congress during the midterms elections.
That would give the upper hand this year to Democrats, who trail the GOP by 45 seats in the House and a narrow two seats in the Senate.
But that same wisdom also says the party in power gets more support when the economy is doing well, and that appears to be the case in 2018 following the GOP tax-reform bill and other moves by President Trump.
So who actually will hold the advantage?
Despite all the media forecasts of a GOP bloodbath, it’s too early to tell, but the margin seems to be closing.
CNN reported in January that voters who say they are most enthusiastic about voting in 2018 favored a Democratic ballot by 15 points.
The next month, however, The Hill reported that after trailing by as many as 10 points for months among independents, the GOP trailed Democrats by a single point.
Even then, the GOP had a slight lead over the Democrats when pitting a generic Republican against a generic Democrat.
But in that assessment, many voters were simply undecided.
Now a poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters this week by Rasmussen asked, “If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or for the Democratic candidate?”
The found the Democrats ahead, slightly, with 46 percent voting for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent would vote for the Republican.
Just 4 percent would vote for some other candidate, but another 9 percent are not sure.
Last fall, ABC was reporting that while it appeared the Democrats would move into the 2018 votes with an advantage, it really wasn’t clear that would happen.
“Winnow down to those who say they voted in the last midterms and are certain to do so again and the contest snaps essentially to a dead heat, 48-46 percent,” the report forecast.