Republican governor in California?

California Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox (johncoxforgovernor.com)

President Trump is the "pivotal reason" why a Republican likely will finish in the top two in California's nonpartisan gubernatorial primary and even has a fighting chance to become the next governor of the deep-blue state, according to a long-time observer of Sacramento politics.

John Cox, a businessman from Illinois, was endorsed by Trump last week, noted Ben Boychuk, a regular columnist with the Sacramento Bee newspaper, and is just behind former Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and way ahead of the rest of the mostly Democratic pack, according to two recent statewide polls.

In California's blanket primary system, the top two candidates go on to the general, regardless of party. A survey and electoral modeling by Competitive Edge Research & Communication, released Thursday, the San Diego Union-Tribune reported, shows Newsom with 26 percent and Cox with 22 percent.

Last week, Trump tweeted his endorsement of Cox, declaring "California finally deserves a great Governor, one who understands borders, crime and lowering taxes."

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Trump said he looks forward to "working with him to Make California Great again!"

Boychuk wrote that while Democrat usually are the top two vote-getters in the governor's race, this year could be different.

"The prospect of so many Democrats eating each other alive has given the down-on-its-luck California Republican Party its first decent shot at second-place in quite some time," he said.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is among the other candidates.

Arguing that Cox might have a chance to win the general, Boychuk observed: "Trump tends to avoid long shots. He likes winners."

He acknowledged that Trump doesn't always get them right, recalling the Alabama special election for Jeff Sessions' Senate seat in which he endorsed Luther Strange, the interim senator.

However, in retrospect, Boychuk wrote, Trump's "initial judgment was right: Strange could have won the race Moore lost in a solidly red state."

In the recent GOP Senate primary in West Virginia, Boychuk pointed out, Trump didn’t endorse anyone but urged Republicans not to vote for former coal mine owner and convicted felon Don Blankenship, saying he can't win the general election and to "remember Alabama."

Blankenship placed third in a three-person race.

Boychuk concluded: "Blankenship might have sounded the most 'nationalist' or 'populist' – that is, 'Trump-like'– of the candidates. But in the end only one thing mattered to Trump: Who could beat the Democrat in November and give him one more vote in the Senate?"

The columnist said "the same calculus applies in the Golden State."

Another poll released Thursday, by SurveyUSA, had Newsom leading with 33 percent and Cox second at 17 percent.

In an analysis of the survey, pollsters John Nienstedt and Jenny Holland said the "strength of the two leading candidates' support makes catching them a long shot."

Nienstedt cast doubt on Cox's chances in the general, however, in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1, the Union-Tribune reported.

“On the Cox side, on the Republican side, they just don’t have enough money and bandwidth at this point to run their own campaign, so, in essence, Newsom is running Cox's campaign for him," Nienstedt said.