(DAILY KOS) – Harry Enten, formerly a Senior Political Analyst at fivethirtyeight.com and now writing for CNN, picks up an interesting data point that may have been overlooked. He notes that the difficulty in predicting control of the House of Representatives lies in the fact that individual districts generally aren't polled, except by partisan groups. When a Democratic or Republican pollster finds a result that he/she likes, they trumpet the poll with a great deal of fanfare and it finds its way to the usual suspects for dissemination to the general public. Otherwise, the poll gets deep-sixed and never sees the light of day. In this way such polls can serve as a barometer of the public mood, even if they are performed by partisan sources.
He notes that polls from Democrats and more left-wing groups typically exceed those put out by right-wing sources. But the variance this year is extraordinary and reminiscent of the polls prior to Democrats' 2006 sweep of the House during the Bush administration. That year, Democrats were energized by Bush's incompetence in Iraq and mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina disaster. During that cycle 77 percent of the released polls were done by Democratic leaning groups. In 2010, Democratic groups released a paltry 35 percent of the polls out there—with electoral results to match.
The Trump administration's embrace of fascism, child abduction, callous indifference to the needs of ordinary Americans and corruption on a truly mammoth scale has rendered the Bush era almost a wistful memory for most Americans.
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