Why Donald Trump is so popular -- and hated

People who grew up in the New York metro market like I did have known Donald Trump for a long time.

Long before he became one of the most famous people in America, New Yorkers knew him – and, whether they admit it or not, were fascinated by him.

I recently read a great new book about Trump called "The Faith of Donald Trump" by David Brody and Scott Lamb, and it reminded me of why we all knew our fellow New Yorker was going places.

Back in 1986, the city had been trying to fix the broken Wollman Ice Skating Rink in Central Park for five years, having spent $12 million and gotten nowhere.

Just about to come out with his book, "The Art of the Deal," Trump challenged Mayor Ed Koch to give him a shot at repairing the rink for $3 million.

Four months later and 25 percent under budget, the rink opened in November.

As the authors say in the book, "this singular act probably marks a turning point for Trump regarding public activism and his eventual entrance into politics."

It was also a great lesson for New Yorkers on how much more efficient the private sector can be than government – one, sadly, they didn't fully embrace.

But Trump was popular in New York and, for that matter, throughout the United States, right up until the moment he began campaigning for the presidency in 2015.

How do I know? Have you ever considered how much he was in the news? Have you ever considered how popular he was as a TV reality star? The public knew Trump and generally had a favorable or, at least, curious feeling about him.

It's one of the reasons I never doubted Trump could become president in 2016 – especially in a contest with Hillary Clinton. In fact, at one point in 2016, I speculated – probably unwisely – that Trump could conceivably win New York and/or California, given the way both states embrace celebrity. OK, I was way off on that suggestion. That was before the media turned on him for his newfound conservatism and populism – ideas that were and are anathema to them.

Yet, less than two years into his amazingly effective presidency, Trump is more popular today than Barack Obama was at the same point in his first term – and with good reason. He has kept his promises, he has turned the economy around, he is building the wall, he is making America a safer place to live. None of the dire predictions made about him by his many adversaries of both parties have come to fruition.

However, as popular as he may be today, for those who don't like him, he has become the personification of all evil in the world. Too many have a mindless, irrational hatred of him. They can be broken down into two categories – dyed-in-the-wool Democratic progressives and the much smaller group of establishment Republicans, with many of the latter being won over by Trump day by day.

As for many Democrats, the more popular Trump gets with the public, the more they fear and detest him. But, not for all. In fact, I strongly suspect that 25 percent of Democrats are not nearly as "progressive" as their party.

And do you know what that means for the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election?

For 2018, it suggests Trump could neutralize the historic trend of midterm elections being very bad, even disastrous, for the party controlling the White House. I'm willing to bet it will be at worst a minor setback for Trump's ability to govern effectively. At best, it could prove to be a wash.

But for 2020, there's no one in the Democratic Party who can beat Trump. In fact, I expect by then he will have created a major political realignment that will result in many Democratic voter defections, resulting in a landslide.

All he needs to do between now and then is to keep doing what he's doing – and, maybe, pull a rabbit or two out of his hat like the Wollman Skating Rink coup.