Why America is winning the trade war

A recently received email implied that President Trump is a bad executive because the Chinese are substituting soybeans from South America for soybeans China previously bought from the U.S. and because a Trump casino declared bankruptcy many years ago. That seems to be the newest liberal tactic against Trump: Ignore the current facts and continually bring up history in order to chip away at the president's base of voters, since the Democratic accusations of conspiracy with Russians proved to be "fake news."

Is China substituting soybeans from South America to replace those from the United States? Of course. That is called product substitution. And isn't that exactly what is happening to products/components the U.S. previously got from China? Product substitution via American manufacturing expansion, Vietnam, South Korea, etc. Isn't that exactly what Kiplinger, Forbes, Bloomberg (liberal) all said would happen more than a year ago? Product substitution liberal economists ignored as they demeaned Trump tariffs?

So why do liberals accept the concept of product substitution concerning soybeans from the U.S. but refuse to acknowledge that it is happening with products from China? Cognitive dissonance.

Liberals claim that soybeans are commodities. Well, so are aluminum and steel and computer chips.

The truth is that if the USA and China do no business at all with each other, then China nets down $500 billion to its GDP (trade surplus) and the USA nets up $500 billion (trade deficit). That's $500 billion in jobs, GDP, etc. China has much to lose from product substitution while the U.S. has much to gain.

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The Federal Reserve calculated that tariffs only increased overall prices in the U.S. by 0.2 percent, which is less than $80 per average American family, while providing more jobs (700,000 new manufacturing jobs after Obama said that manufacturing would never grow again) and increased wages (3.2 percent, which is faster than inflation for the first time in more than a decade; Obama never did that). Doesn't that sound like a good deal to you? Or are you suffering from cognitive dissonance in that you refuse to acknowledge anything good resulting from Trump's presidency?

Liberal economists calculated that tariffs increased prices to Americans by more than what the Fed calculated because liberal economists only calculated price-over-price changes to the same products from the same suppliers without consideration for product substitution. In reality, over time, any product can be replaced – and Beijing knows that. China will suffer tremendously if its products/components are replaced in U.S. supply chains.

Which nations are dependent? Those that rely on exports to drive their economies: Germany, Japan, China, Iran (oil), Venezuela (oil), the Saudis (oil), Russia (oil), Canada and Mexico. They are dependent on the health of their customers. Just like any other business, the customer is king. And how are their economies doing now, especially since the United States is oil-independent for the first time since 1953? The price of oil dropped from $75 a barrel under Obama to around $55 now. Trump is putting the interests of America first and is making the U.S. self-sufficient and independent – not only with oil, but with steel, aluminum, high tech, etc. Even Apple is moving its plants out of China. Since 70 percent of the U.S. economy is based on consumer consumption, America is winning the trade war.

Who got hurt in the USA? Companies that moved manufacturing out to ship cheaper products back to America for sale, i.e., Jeff Immelt (GE) moved 400 of the company's 600 plants offshore, and Immelt was the U.S. jobs chairman for Obama when he did it.

Why do 80 percent of the CEOs of the Fortune 500 agree with what Trump is doing with China? They understand the power of the consumer. The U.S. market is the biggest consumer in the world. As stated by the CFO of Walmart, only 10 percent of its products come from China, and when need be those products can be easily replaced – product substitution.

China knows that if the supply chains that use Chinese components replace those products, then it will be very difficult to ever change back again. Trump is winning. So why are liberals refusing to acknowledge it? Cognitive dissonance.

The liberal pundits were wrong in the summer of 2018 when they blamed stock declines on tariffs. They ignored the effects of higher interest rates by the Fed, economic problems in China and Europe, and the overvalued stock prices of the FAANG. They wanted to blame it on Trump tariffs despite the facts. Cognitive dissonance.

Did Trump ever lose money in his personal business? Sure. How about Buffett? Gates? Bezos? Soros? And every other billionaire? That is how they all learned when to hold them and when to fold them.

When have intellectuals ever learned that? Never – they have no practical experience, just theory. That is why they make so many mistakes. They allow their theories and biases to interfere with the facts. Cognitive dissonance.