COVID-19 has a much higher death rate than that of the seasonal flu, the experts say. We mustn’t compare it to the flu. This has been the intonation almost since SARS-CoV-2 was discovered. It’s like comparing apples to oranges, blah, blah, blah.
In March, Dr. Anthony Fauci said COVID-19 is far deadlier than the flu. “The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent, this has a mortality of 10 times that,” warned Fauci.
Early on we heard that the novel coronavirus mortality rate was catastrophic relative to that of the flu. “COVID-19, has caused more than 1.4 million illnesses and 85,000 deaths in the U.S. as of May 14, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.”
And it’s far worse today, we’re told, as we just recently surpassed the 100,000-deaths threshold.
The media dutifully parrot the death toll to an uneasy populace – constantly reminding us that we have a killer on our hands. Something must be done to stop the rampant spread of this pandemic.
But is this really a pandemic as we’ve come to know them throughout history?
I realize that the term pandemic is technically correct, as it simply describes an epidemic that spreads beyond a given locality.
The word pandemic has a deadly and disastrous connotation, and conjures up visions of bubonic plague, which was thought to have killed 10% of the world’s population – or the Black Death, which wiped out half of Europe. Hemorrhagic fever, also known as the cocoliztli epidemic, killed an estimated 15 million people throughout Mexico and Central America.
Spanish explorers brought a host of diseases, including smallpox, to the Americas and wiped out an estimated 90% of the Inca and Aztec indigenous population. The London, Marseille and Russian plagues killed anywhere from 15% to 30% of their respective populations.
Then came the Spanish flu of 1918 that killed approximately 675,000 Americans. And at the time, America’s population was just north of 103 million. We have over three times that today.
Worldwide this flu infected 500 million and killed about 100 million. That’s a 20% mortality rate.
These are real world-killers – horrible diseases and viruses that are worthy of the name pandemic. COVID-19 is decidedly not in the same ball park.
But thus far, coronavirus does seem to be more easily transmissible from person to person and also appear to be more deadly than the flu.
Yet there’s a simple reason why that’s the case – and that reason is time (and politics, which will not be discussing here).
As I stated, the Spanish flu appeared in 1918, but it wasn’t until the 1940s that we developed a working flu shot. I hesitate to call it a vaccine, because it’s not like others – Hepatitis, measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc., which can remain effective for years, even for life. The flu shot is not like these vaccines in that it must be administered every season.
Beyond the flu shot, there are also all sorts of over-the-counter products and home remedies for seasonal flu. And there should be. It’s been around for over a century. Imagine how many more infections and deaths we would have without developing flu shots and other remedies over the years?
However, even with few treatments, no vaccine and no over-the-counter products available, COVID-19 has killed relatively few people outside the elderly category or those with comorbidities.
And the percentage of deaths from coronavirus continues to free fall. As of May 26, the mortality rate has dropped again, from original estimates as high as 6% to 0.26%.
Don’t be surprised that within a few weeks the current rate will be downgraded yet again.
So no, COVID-19 is not the flu, and will probably turn out to be less deadly, with more time, remedies and commingling of our population.
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