By Dan Rembold
Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words can never hurt me. Numbers – that’s a different story.
In recent days, numbers have made us do gladly that which we would have only done at the end of a bayonet a few weeks ago. Let’s face the fear, and look at the numbers.
Every 10 or 11 years when a new influenza-like illness appears, epidemiologists know there are many uncounted cases at first. At that point in time it is irresponsible and misleading to assign a mortality rate to the disease. Yet that is exactly what Dr. Anthony Fauci did, proclaiming COVID-19’s MR is “10 times greater than seasonal flu.” We now know the MR of COVID-19 is about one- or two-tenths of 1 percent, similar to seasonal flu.
Large pandemics have always been described within a range. Authorities say anywhere from 20 to 100 million died from the 1918-19 Spanish flu. The same is true of the Hong Kong flu of 1968 and the Swine flu (2009). COVID-19 is no different. Numbers being circulated by worldometers.com, Johns Hopkins University and the WHO/CDC are in the middle of a range; they simply don’t tell us what that range is. It could be anywhere from 2:1 to 5:1. So the real numbers could be higher – or much, much lower. Try finding out how many have died from falls in the bathtub or in car accidents – same thing.
The Swine flu of 1976 should have taught us a lesson. Thirteen soldiers were stricken early that year by a “novel” coronavirus; one died. Within months the U.S. spent millions and pushed an early vaccine intended for the entire population, a vaccine that sickened and killed many. Everyone feared for their lives. How many died worldwide of Swine flu? One. GlobalSecurity.org has the story here.
We have suffered because of a modeling report released March 16, 2020, by the Imperial College London, which claimed 2.2 million Americans could die. The excuse that “they were going on the information they had at the time” is not an excuse.
In addition, numbers are being padded.
One public official, Dr. Deborah Birx, readily admits that “probable” cases are now being counted in the same category as “confirmed” cases. On April 7, 2020, she said, “… anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 and dies should be counted as a COVID-19 death, regardless of whether he or she had underlying conditions.” Nothing new here; the CDC began the practice during the Swine flu epidemic of 2009.
Pennsylvania has removed 200 deaths from its count under pressure from county coroners. In May San Diego County, California, admitted that only six of its 194 reported deaths were confirmed. NYC added 3,700 names on one day; hundreds more were often added to previous days without documentation.
In Lee County, Alabama, the weekend of March 28-29, six patients died at East Alabama Medical Center; some reports said seven. As of Friday the 27th there had been only three statewide deaths from COVID.
Confusion ensued concerning both the number of people who died and which ones were reported to be due to COVID-19. On the next Monday all seven were reported as such by East Alabama Medical Center. It would have taken state officials until at least Thursday to make that determination. On Wednesday the hospital stopped making reported numbers available to the public.
It’s bad public health policy to rely upon one set of numbers, such as a decline in new cases, to determine a course of action: During the off-season, no ILI (influenza-like illness) ever goes to zero new cases.
Do mitigation efforts work? Think about it this way:
You take your umbrella to work and it rains during the day. Conclusion: taking your umbrella caused the rain.
We practice social distancing and the numbers go down. Conclusion: social distancing caused the numbers to go down. It’s the same lack of logic.
Many factors, from the weather, to herd immunity, to the density of cities has an impact on the numbers going down. It just happened concurrently. All ILI’s go up. Then they go down.
This is the stuff that makes people believe magic tricks.
Right now in the U.S. alone we are doing roughly 400,000 tests a day at $100 apiece, profiting someone $40 million a day. In 90 days that’s $3.6 billion.
That’s one number we do know for certain.
The eighth-leading cause of death in the U.S. has been seasonal influenza combined with pneumonia, averaging around 38,000 per year for the last 10 years. According to UPI.com, “… so far this winter season, the flu has caused death in roughly 24,000 people across the country, the CDC estimates.” That’s 37 percent below average; not rare but unusual. Since clinical symptoms are similar, could many of the real seasonal flu deaths be getting counted as COVID-19? It would seem so, especially since clinical diagnosis without testing is allowed.
We need a renewed commitment to truth in numbers.
Numbers don’t lie. People do.
Dan Rembold is a college instructor, aspiring boat-builder and sailor. He holds degrees in Applied Piano and Biblical Hebrew and Greek.