
President Donald J. Trump bids farewell from Air Force One Saturday, May 30, 2020, concluding his trip to Cape Canaveral, Florida. (Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead)
In 2016, most polls showed Hillary Clinton with a solid lead among voters nationally over Donald Trump, even up to the morning of the election.
As the 2020 vote approaches, the Trump campaign is challenging the accuracy of the leading polls by hiring a firm to analyze them, McLaughlin & Associates.
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Trump wrote on Twitter he has retained the polling company to "analyze todays CNN poll (and others), which I felt were FAKE based on the incredible enthusiasm we are receiving."
In an initial "memo" to Trump, McLaughlin finds "skewed" polling it concludes is "intentional."
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"It's clear that NBC, ABC and CNN who have Democrat operatives like Chuck Todd, George Stephanopoulos and other Democrats in their news operations are consistently under-polling Republicans and therefore, reporting biased polls," the memo says.
"They continue to poll adults or registered voters that skew away from likely voters. So instead of the 33% Republican turnout which actually happened … they are reporting polls on only 26%, 25% or even 24% Republicans. Since you get over 90% of the Republican vote, for every point fewer Republicans that they do not poll, they reduce your vote total by a point. In contract CBS polled likely voters. CBS had 32% Republicans and a close national race."
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A CNN poll reported Monday finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden opening up his biggest lead, 14 points, over Trump amid a drop in the president's approval rating to 38%.
But McLaughlin writes to Trump that the "bias seems to be an intentional strategy to suppress your vote."
"The latest media spin is that it's too late to define Joe Biden and it's too late for President Trump to win. We can hardly wait until they start spinning a 'Biden electoral lock'. It has to be a strategy to counter the enthusiasm of Trump voters."
Another problem is the recent polls were conducted before Friday's stunning jobs report. Instead of the expected loss of 8 million jobs, the nation actually added 2.5 million.
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Also, between the job approval and ballot questions, some polls "had questions on issues including race relations," which could have biased polling.
"The refusal to screen for actual likely voters is creating an under-polling of Republicans and therefore Trump voters. It seems intentional. It's exactly what the media did in 2016."
Trump tweeted: "They are called SUPPRESSION POLLS, and are put out to dampen enthusiasm. Despite 3 ½ years of phony Witch Hunts, we are winning, and will close it out on November 3rd!"