President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks to employees and guests Thursday, June 25, 2020, at Fincantieri Marinette Marine in Marinette, Wisconsin. (Official White House photo by Tia Dufour)
A professor whose statistical model predicted President Trump's stunning 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton says 2020 will be the same.
Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University in New York said his model, based on the strength of the candidates in the primaries, gives Trump with a 91% chance of victory in November.
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He pointed out, the Gateway Pundit reported, that his model has been correct on the popular vote since the 1990s.
And interviewer Lou Dobbs noted the model has been correct 24 of 26 times. Going back to xxxx, the only elections in which Norpoth's model didn't predict the winner were the razor-thin races in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon and in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
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Norpoth explained his calculations are based on early primary results rather than the hypothetical questions that pollsters typically ask.
Trump comes out on top, according to that model, he said.
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In fact, in the New Hampshire primary, Biden ended up in single digits, in fifth place.
That is a "powerful metric" for "predicting what is going to happen in November," the professor explained.
He said he didn't know of any nominee who did so poorly in New Hampshire who went on to win in November.
Current opinion polling gives Joe Biden a double-digit lead over the president, much as it indicated Clinton had a big lead over Trump in the 2016 race at this point.
See the professor talking about the 2020 race:
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In another interview before the 2016 election, Fox News pointed out the New York Times gave Trump a 15% chance of winning and the Huffington Post a 1% chance.
