The U.S. economy experienced the largest quarterly increase in history in the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker.
Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s tracker increased its estimate of GDP growth to 34%.
That would shatter the old record of 16.7% in the first quarter of 1950 during the Harry Truman administration.
The estimate bolsters President Trump’s prediction of a V-shaped recovery following the economy-crushing lockdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic. In the second quarter, GDP contracted at a 31.7% annualized pace.
The Atlanta Fed explains GDPNow is not an official forecast
of the Atlanta Fed but is “best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.”
Last month, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard predicted “off the charts” growth in the third quarter.
He foresaw an unemployment rate of 6.5% by the end of the year. Unemployment in August was 8.4%, down from the pandemic peak of 14.7%.
“This is the biggest growth quarter of all time in the U.S.,” he said Sept. 18 during a moderated discussion with the Boeing Center for Supply Chain Innovation, CNBC reported. “It looks like 30% at an annual rate. Crazy number, way off the charts compared to anything we’re used to in U.S. post-war macroeconomic history.”
Bullard said the growth will help the Fed meet its 2% inflation mandate.
