A poller that correctly predicted Britain’s Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump in 2016 indicates President Trump is leading in the national popular vote by 1 point.
The Sunday Express/Democracy Institute poll of likely voters, which conflicts with most polls showing Biden with a significant lead, has Trump at 46% and Biden 45%.
But the most important result of the poll is that is shows Trump is on track to win 320 Electoral College votes, compared to Biden’s 218.
The Real Clear Politics Average of Polls, which does not include the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute poll, has Biden leading by 7.6% nationally. An IBD-TIPP Poll indicates Biden is up by 3%. A recent Zogby Poll shows Biden up 2%.
Significantly, the Democracy Institute poll found 18% of likely black voters declaring they will vote for Trump. In 2016, he received only 8% of the black vote.
Patrick Basham, the director of the Democracy Institute, called the “low support and enthusiasm” for Biden among blacks the “Achilles’ Heel” of the Democrat’s campaign, Breitbart News reported.
Basham told the Sunday Express: “To beat Trump, Biden needs nine in 10 black votes, and lots of black voters to cast ballots. Currently, he’s positioned to win only eight in ten, with two out of ten black voters ready to support Trump, and overall black turnout looking to be flat, at best.”
The poll shows Trump leading Biden by 4% in Florida, 2% in Minnesota and 2% in New Hampshire.
The margin of error of 2.5% means Trump and Biden are in a statistical tie nationally. The poll was conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, after the first presidential debate and at the same time the president confirmed he had tested positive for COVID-19.
Nationwide, 61% of likely voters think Trump will win a second term. Thirty-nine percent believe he won’t.
Law and order is the key election issue for one in three, and nearly that many say jobs and the economy is their top priority.
Twelve percent say Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court makes them more likely to vote for the president, 9% say it makes them less likely, and 79% say it makes no difference.
The poll addressed the issue of the “secret” or “silent” Trump supporters.
Eighty-seven percent of Biden supporters said they were “comfortable with relatives, friends, coworkers knowing how you vote.” But only 22% of Trump supporters said the same.
Basham said the shy Trump voter “is much more likely to be in fact … an African American in an urban setting or a suburban white woman.”
“Those are votes for Trump that if they come in are going to surprise people because they are the ones who are least expected to support him,” he said.
The Gateway Pundit blog said the Democracy Institute poll “appears to best reflect reality as we have measured attendance of supporters at events since Labor day for both parties and see with our own eyes that President Trump is filling up events around the country while Biden doesn’t even fill up the circle markers at his events wherever he goes.”
