Poll that nailed 2016 election publishes final 2020 survey

President Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden at the first presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio on Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020. (C-SPAN video screenshot)

A polling company that correctly predicted Britain's Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump in 2016 has published its final 2020 survey, which indicates President Trump will get another four years.

The Democracy Institute poll for the Sunday Express finds Trump will win the vote nationally by 48% to 47% over Joe Biden. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 2.87 million more votes nationally than Trump.

In the tally that counts, the Electoral College, Trump is on course to win by 326 to 212 votes, 22 more than in 2016.

The Democracy Institute said that in the final days of the campaign, the revelations from Hunter Biden's laptop and other sources of alleged influence peddling by Joe Biden and his family had an impact. The controversy over Twitter's censorship of the story only enhanced its profile.

The final survey has Trump with a lead of 2 to 4 points in the key swing states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Unlike most other polls, which predict a Biden victory, the Democracy Institute poll identifies likely voters instead of just registered voters and tries to identify the "shy" Trump vote.

The latest poll found 79% of Trump supporters would not admit their vote to friends and family compared to 21% of Biden supporters.

Another pollster who factors in the shy vote and who predicted Trump's victory in 2016 says 20-25% of blacks in battleground states will vote for the president this time, which is enough to "tip the scales" in his favor.

Will President Trump win reelection?

"It's a significant move in this vote," said Robert Cahaly, CEO of the Trafalgar Group, in an interview Monday with Fox Business host Maria Baritromo. "And everytime a black leader comes forward and says they’re with Trump, it makes people actually less shy about declaring they’re for Trump."

Cahaly said many independents haven't voted yet and are "still weighing the candidates."

He noted that most polls show the economy is the No. 1 issue, and working class, hourly-wage workers and college students who don't want another shutdown are moving late in the campaign to Trump.

Meanwhile, Helmut Norpoth, the professor of political science at Stony Brook University who predicted Trump's 2016 win, gives Trump a 91% chance of winning.

His primary model, based on the candidates' performance in the primary elections, predicts the president will win with 362 Electoral College votes.

See Helmut Norpoth's interview with Fox Business host Lou Dobbs:

'Inefficient vote'

Regarding the Hunter Biden allegations, the Democracy Institute asked voters who they thought was telling the truth. Fifty-seven percent chose former Biden associate Tony Bobulinski over the former vice president. Bobulinksi claims he met twice with Joe Biden regarding his son's business deal with China while the former VP insists he never discussed his son's business deals with his son or anyone.

Meanwhile, 52% agreed that Biden is "a corrupt politician," with 21% saying they are less likely to vote for him and 75% saying it makes no difference.

The Democracy Institute found that 4 in 10 black voters approve of Trump's presidency and 21% are prepared to vote for him.

Patrick Basham, CEO of the Democracy Institute, said Trump's voters "are more evenly dispersed across the country than are Biden's."

"Biden's comparatively inefficient vote is likely to mirror Hillary Clinton's from four years ago," he said. "Biden will do incredibly well in the heavily populated states of California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York."

"In these states, and in others reliably painted a deep Democratic blue, he will rack up enormous margins of victory over Trump, providing him with the potential to score a national popular vote victory, yet probably depriving him of sufficient votes in Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida to turn Trump into a one-term president," Basham said.

2016 all over again

Political analyst and talk-radio host Kevin McCullough is set to release his final Electoral College map Tuesday morning via Twitter. He predicted in 2016 that Trump after would win 30 states and Hillary Clinton would pick up 20. It turned out Trump got 30.5 and Hillary 19.5, reflecting the splitting of Electoral College votes in Nebraska and Maine.

In an interview Monday with Eric Metaxes, McCullough explained why he thinks Trump will win again.

See the interview:

Republicans also have been buoyed by the final Des Moines Register poll, which shows a late shift to Trump in Iowa, putting the president 7 points ahead of Biden.

Matt Margolis of PJ Media spotlighted a tweet by never-Trumper Bill Kristol, who wrote Friday prior to the poll's release that he recalled a conversation with a Republican friend days before the 2016 election.

Kristol's friend said in 2016 that if Iowa was +7 for Trump, he had a good shot at winning Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan and could win the whole thing.

"I was worried," Kristol wrote. "He was right.”

Trump ultimately won Iowa in 2016 by 9.4 points.

Margolis noted that in September’s Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47%.

J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll, said the gender gap has narrowed, and independents have flooded back to the president.

"The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing," she said. "There’s a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016."

I remember well my phone conversation with a smart Republican friend (sadly, pro-Trump) Sat. eve, Nov. 5, 2016, after the final DMR poll of IA at Trump +7. He said, if IA is +7, then Trump has a good shot in PA/WI/MI, and could win the whole thing. I was worried. He was right. https://t.co/li1sTAYCP1

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 31, 2020

Either...

a) The DMR poll is an outlier.
b) Iowa is an outlier.
c) Almost every poll in almost every other state, and almost every national poll, are outliers.

Needless to say, a) or b) are MUCH more likely than c).

Still: You may want a stiff drink to settle your nerves.

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) October 31, 2020

Margolis noted that Republican Sen. Joni Ernst also saw a boost in the Des Moines Register poll. She's now leading her challenger 46% to 42%.

On Saturday, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison told CNN's Chris Cuomo he believes Trump has a chance to become the first Republican since Richard Nixon to win Minnesota.

Cuomo, noting Trump has invested considerable resources in the state, asked Ellison thought the president had "a real shot."

"Honestly, yes I do," Ellison said.

“We did not shut down their rally,” says Minnesota AG Keith Ellison about Trump’s criticism of Dems limiting the capacity at his rally. “All we’re trying to do is protect people from a deadly virus that has taken the lives of about 2,400 Minnesotans and about 230,000 Americans.” pic.twitter.com/1qkejbAFpD

— Cuomo Prime Time (@CuomoPrimeTime) October 31, 2020