The mainstream media have been saying since 2020 that Arizona is purple or even turning blue, but people in Arizona know that year was a fluke. Almost every one of the candidates endorsed in Arizona by Donald Trump are expected to win in the midterms, with even mainstream pollsters predicting so. The only one expected not to win is Blake Masters for U.S. Senate, but that’s not because Trump endorsed him; a myriad of things went wrong in that race including being out-raised by a stunning amount.
Longtime local newscaster Kari Lake has been the most phenomenal rising success, defeating a more moderate Republican in the primary who massively outspent her four to one. With zero background in politics and no campaign manager for much of the race, she pulled off what very few candidates have been able to do – very similar to Trump. She’s often referred to as a more polished version of Trump. Due to her experience in media, she turns interviews around on those questioning her.
While mainstream polls were showing Lake neck and neck with Democratic challenger Katie Hobbs for a while, Hobbs’ refusal to debate Lake even once and her low-energy campaigning has tipped the momentum to Lake.
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Then there’s Arizona State Rep. Mark Finchem, a champion of election integrity who is facing off against a radical Democrat, former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, in the Arizona secretary of state race. Finchem is leading Fontes by five points in a mainstream poll, Ohio Predictive Insights. He’s leading by even more in the GOP-aligned Trafalgar poll. Fontes was such a disaster as Maricopa County recorder that even the left-wing Arizona Republic railed against him, contributing to his defeat for reelection in 2020 – supposedly a good year for Democrats in Arizona. He freaked out the electorate earlier that year by sending ballots to voters who didn’t request them in the primary, costing taxpayers over $100,000 until Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich took him to court to shut it down.
Trump’s endorsed candidate in the race for Arizona attorney general, Abraham Hamadeh, is also 5 points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Kris Mayes, according to mainstream pollster HighGround. Mayes is doing so poorly in the race that the Democratic Attorneys General Association cut almost $500,000 in its effort to help her. The drop in funding came right after numerous tweets were discovered by her consultant bashing the police and white people.
Hamadeh, who is only 31, has come under criticism for having only practiced law for two years, but Mayes doesn’t even appear to have practiced law at all. During a debate, Mayes referred to her experience “prosecuting” while serving on the Arizona Corporation Commission, but Arizona Corporation Commissioner Jim O’Connor called her out and said there is no prosecution involved at that job.
Trump has endorsed several candidates running for Congress, including Eli Crane in a close race in the Second Congressional District. The polls show him slightly ahead.
Unfortunately, in Masters’ race against incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly, he’s been only able to raise $9.7 million, while Kelly has raised over $75 million. A strong Libertarian candidate, Marc Victor, has siphoned away a significant amount of votes from Masters. While most of Trump’s endorsements have been great, this one was strongly questioned. Most of the other candidates in the crowded five-way GOP primary were about as conservative, and Brnovich, who had an impressive history as AG aggressively going after left-wing wokism, endorsed by Sean Hannity and Marc Levin, was considered the strongest candidate to take on Kelly. Masters spent much of his career working for Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, who funded Masters and helped get him endorsements, but since the mMillennial didn’t have any record, opponents dug up his careless statements, which continue to plague his campaign.
Many believe Masters’ team planted false stories about Brnovich in right-wing media trying to make him look weak on voter fraud when the opposite was true. Once Masters won the primary and powerful players realized he was probably going to lose, they didn’t bother to prop him up anymore. The National Senate Republican Committee didn’t put in as much money as they would have if Brnovich would have won, a member of Congress told me. The Senate Leadership Fund cut $8 million in ads. Trump reportedly contributed $100,000 in the primary but nothing in the general. And Thiel also apparently contributed nothing in the general, although he did attempt to make some efforts that failed.
Other than Masters, Arizona’s Trump-endorsed candidates are on course to sweep the midterms. However, there is great fear throughout the state that voter fraud could sabotage Republicans’ chances. Many believe there was voter fraud during the August primary election. Rasmussen Reports, which is considered one of the most accurate pollsters, showed Lake up 9 points immediately before the election, but she ultimately won by only a couple of points. Incidentally, Rasmussen showed Trump winning Arizona by 4 points immediately prior to the 2020 election.
Conservative activists are going all out to ensure there is little fraud in the election. They’re up against a daunting task, however, as new information seeps out. Maricopa County hired 145 more Democrats than Republicans to staff the primary election, despite the fact Republicans concerned about voter fraud are applying in droves, and there are substantially more registered Republicans than Democrats in the county. “Bad” signatures were rejected 14 times more often during the primary election than during the notorious 2020 election, leading to fears that it is easy to manipulate AI to change the standard of review.
A citizens’ group launched a movement to stop the use of electronic voting machine readers in the election, and so some counties are considering dropping them. Lake and Finchem filed a lawsuit to stop their use. Citizens have organized ballot drop box watching shifts, reporting suspicious activity on a new nationwide reporting app called VotifyNow. On Election Day, the app will reveal to users what problems others in their area are reporting.
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