[Editor’s note: This story originally was published by Real Clear Wire.]
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By Todd Carney
Real Clear Wire
Polls for Pennsylvania’s Senate race have tightened, yet the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, continues to lead. Many prognosticators rate the Senate race as “leans Democrat” or “likely Democrat.” In theory, this makes sense. If polls are relatively accurate, Oz trails by 4.1 points, a tough margin to overcome at this point in the race. The problem: for the last six years, polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans, including in Pennsylvania elections. If Pennsylvania’s 2016 results are any indication, Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz has a strong chance.
Pennsylvania’s 2016 Senate race had similar dynamics to the current contest. It was competitive right to the end. As with the 2022 race, several election analysts rated the seat as “leans Democrat.” In the final 12 polls leading up to the election, the Republican incumbent, Pat Toomey, trailed the Democratic nominee, Katie McGinty, in 10. One poll even had Toomey down by 12 points. Yet, Toomey outperformed these polls by an average of 3.6 points and won reelection.
In 2016, polls underestimated Donald Trump in Pennsylvania by a similar margin. During the entire election cycle, Trump led in only one poll in Pennsylvania. This misjudgment occurred in other state polls as well, and since 2016, polls have repeatedly underpredicted Republican turnout.
This year, history seems to be repeating itself in Pennsylvania. First, recent polls show Oz picking up momentum. In mid-August, Fetterman had an average lead of 8.7 points; it is now down to 4.1 points. The latest Emerson poll shows Fetterman up just 45% to 43%, the closest margin of the cycle. In 2016, Toomey picked up momentum in the final weeks of the campaign, cutting McGinty’s lead roughly in half.
As noted recently, New York Times pollster Nate Cohn believes that polls might be overestimating Democrats again. Cohn argued that this overestimation could come from polls portraying Democrats in a stronger position among white working-class voters than they really are. An analysis from a few months ago found that working-class voters remain the backbone of Pennsylvania’s electorate.
Democrats have talked up Fetterman’s appeal to blue-collar voters, just as they talked up Joe Biden’s. The same mistake seems to be occurring nationally this cycle, but even more so with Fetterman because Democrats believe that he has a magic touch with these voters.
Another echo of 2016 is Oz’s high unfavorability ratings. Like Trump in 2016, Oz has a reputation as a junk-television host who has made sketchy product endorsements in the past. Yet Trump won in 2016, in part due to Hillary Clinton’s low appeal among working-class voters. Lately Fetterman has faced negative press that has made him less popular with this demographic, including revelations that he had not paid taxes for years and had lived off his parents’ money into his 40s. Pennsylvania’s tightening polls suggest that this information is taking a toll on Fetterman, just as Clinton’s various drawbacks ultimately cost her the election.
At least one polling outfit, Cook Political Report, recently revised the race from “leans Democrat” to “toss-up.” Even though Cook should never have rated the race “leans Democrat” in the first place, this change underscores that Oz has momentum.
Pennsylvania’s Senate race is close. Neither a Fetterman nor an Oz win would be surprising. Much of the media is proclaiming that Fetterman has a marked advantage because he leads in the polls. But as seen in 2016 with the victories of Trump and Toomey, Oz may do much better on Election Day than the polls suggest.
Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Law School.
This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.
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