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Washington Secrets columnist Paul Bedard in the Washington Examiner is reporting that voters, now alarmed by Joe Biden’s “inflation-wracked economy,” are likely to give control of Congress to Republicans in just weeks.
He explained it’s because while the GOP typically trails Democrats in “generic congressional ballot” polling, the Republicans now actually are up.
The GOP now holds a 4 percentage point lead, according to Rasmussen Reports.
That assessment revealed, “If the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 45% to 44%.”
Bedard explained the “generic ballot” polling is a number many Washington insiders follow, but it isn’t well-understood, “because it is not an exact predictor of the vote.”
He explained that Democrats typically lead in the generic ballot “even in years when they lose. That is because no matter what pollsters do to compensate, it leans heavily toward Democrats.”
That means, he said, if pollsters are saying Republicans are three points behind, they still likely would take control of the House and Senate in November.
Bedard cited an explanation of the circumstance from Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who discussed a Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll.
Goeas said, “First of all, one thing we have known for years in terms of generic ballot, in fact, it’s always kind of an inside joke, is that the generic ballot is skewed towards the Democrats. Because there are many minority districts, there are many Democratic districts that are very Democrat — inner cities, particularly, that are 80% Democrat on the generic ballot.”
But there are few “heavily GOP generic districts.”
“Now one of the things we’ve always noticed is if the generic ballot is within 5 points, usually that means we pick up some seats. What we have known on the generic ballot, and this has held year after year after year, if it’s a generic balance within 3 points, it usually means we’re winning enough districts that we take control of Congress.”
Bedard noted, “That suggests a massive lead for the GOP in the Rasmussen survey.”
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