Putin seeks a little help from his few friends

It is clear from the ongoing Ukraine war initiated in February 2022 by Moscow that the Russian military's conventional punch is not what it has long been cracked up to be. Its image as a fighting force capable of rolling over the militaries of other countries in the region has been shattered. The war with Ukraine, that was supposedly only to take days or weeks to win, is now in its 19th month.

Last May 9 marked the 78th anniversary of Victory Day for Russia – the date it defeated Nazi Germany during World War II. It is a celebration that historically has involved row after row of military tanks parading down Moscow's streets. However, this year, the military's presence was drastically slimmed down. There was but one tank in the parade, underscoring how much Russia is hurting. The Ukraine war has become such a drain on Moscow that it is unable to manufacture sufficient ammunition and weaponry to replace what it has expended and lost. It needs help and is looking to its friends – China, Belarus, Iran and North Korea – to provide it. The question becomes, how much help are they willing to provide?

We know China helps Russia avoid U.N. and U.S. sanctions. Chinese-government owned defense companies are believed to be supplying Moscow with navigation equipment, fighter jet parts and other dual-use technology. It has increased its purchase of Russian oil and gas, allowing Russia "to conduct transactions unfettered of Western interdiction."

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Belarus has beat its chest, threatening to enter the war on Russia's side but making clear it would send troops only if attacked. (Russian President Vladimir Putin would love to see a second front opened up against Ukraine, so a false flag incident is not beyond the realm of possibilities.) Belarus has already assisted Russia diplomatically by negotiating a deal with the rogue Russian mercenary Wagner Group, stopping its one-day invasion into Russia and allowing it to withdraw into Belarus. It apparently also gave Putin the time to orchestrate the demise of the Wagner Group's leader.

Russia and Iran have drawn closer over the last year. As drones have proven to be very effective for both sides in the Ukraine war, Iran has been providing them to Moscow. It also is assisting Russia in the construction of a drone manufacturing plant east of Moscow.

Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Putin recently in Russia, arriving via his heavily armored train, accompanied by two escort trains. The top subject they obviously discussed was how Pyongyang could best assist Moscow.

Putin dismissed as "nonsense" the rumor that Pyongyang would send troops to Ukraine.

Historically, such a deployment would not be outlandish. In early 1967, during the U.S. war with Vietnam, Pyongyang offered to send 30 pilots to Hanoi to fight U.S. air forces. It saw a twofold advantage in doing so: to help a government opposed to the U.S. and to provide its pilots with an opportunity to learn air-to-air combat tactics against the Americans.

Hanoi was initially reluctant to accept such help but eventually did. It quickly regretted its decision as one major problem developed. Every North Korean pilot that took to the air to engage a U.S. aircraft was shot down. This was a double whammy for the North Vietnamese as the Korean pilots were flying North Vietnamese aircraft. After only a few months of suffering such losses of their planes, the Vietnamese thanked the Koreans but requested they return home. As one senior Vietnamese officer observed, "We allowed the North Koreans to come as they wanted to practice their tactics against the Americans. They had their practice – and they died."

Today, 14 of those Korean pilots who came to Vietnam lie buried in that country's Bac Giang Province cemetery.

It is doubtful Pyongyang would send troops to Ukraine but, rather, will pursue another option. North Korea has a healthy supply of ammunition and weaponry that could meet Russia's immediate needs. Kim will be tempted to help by Russian promises to share missile technology. While Kim well knows contributing to Russia's war effort could result in additional sanctions against his country, he will explore how he can best meet Moscow's needs quietly.

It is doubtful that any participation by North Korean forces in Ukraine would turn the tide of battle. As is the norm for nations led by autocrats who seek to make a show of military might but fear the overthrow of their leadership if their military is trained too well, North Korean forces would become cannon fodder for the Ukrainians. Just like Iraq's Saddam Hussein fielded an army with a massive capability – at least on paper – it completely crumbled in a matter of days in the face of advancing US forces. Any North Korean participation would undoubtedly end on a similar note.

Now 39, Kim was born 18 years after the surviving Korean pilots returned home from the Vietnam war. If he has heard anything about that experience, it probably has been spun to hide their disastrous performance. While he would be a fool to consider helping Putin in any capacity for fear of additional sanctions imposing more hardships on his people, sadly that has never been a concern for a Kim family that has brutally ruled North Korea for almost eight decades.

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