By Jeffrey R. Yago, P.E., C.E.M.
I am always curious why politicians and news reporters having absolutely no technical background think its perfectly all right to spout utter nonsense to the general public when describing technical subjects they know nothing about, which have far-reaching unintended consequences they do not understand, and probably could care less.
This is especially true when they are discussing our nation’s energy needs, solar power, the electric grid, power generation and the major push for electric vehicles (EV). Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but getting rid of all gasoline-powered vehicles and buying an EV is not going to be the answer to our country’s energy needs; in fact this switch is going to make things far worse.
I will start by admitting there is a future for grid-charged electric vehicles, just not the future we are being promised. If you live in a city or suburbs located in the southern half of the United States having both mild winters and summers; have a daily work commute of 20 miles or less; own a second vehicle for long-distance trips; and can afford the much higher sticker price; then by all means, go for it. However, if you do not fit this profile, I am convinced you will be seriously disappointed after buying an EV.
I realize the following facts and numbers may cause some readers’ eyes to glaze over, so I will try to avoid getting too deep into the weeds. Before specifically addressing my EV concerns, we need a brief review of the current state of our nation’s electric grid and what is generating all this power. After all, this is what is expected to charge up the millions of new battery-powered vehicles soon to come on line. For over 100 years, coal-fired power plants provided over half of our nation’s energy needs. This has dropped to only 19% today due to the higher costs to maintain these aging plants plus much stricter EPA pollution regulations that are now too costly to meet.
During the recent 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, Michael Bloomberg pledged over $500 million to offset the legal expenses incurred toward the goal of “shutting down every last coal-fired power plant in the United States, plus half of all remaining natural gas-fired power plants.” In 2023 President Biden pledged to dismantle over 80% of all remaining coal-fired power plants in the next six years by enacting even stricter government regulations on the coal industry. So where is all the additional electrical power going to come from to charge all these electric vehicles?
Thanks to very low-cost natural gas as the result of fracking, natural gas-fired power plants now provide over 40% of our nation’s electrical generation to offset the recent 40% loss of coal-fired power generation. However, after killing off the coal industry, this government now wants to eliminate natural gas-fired generating plants. Have you taken note of Biden’s recent attempts to force out of existence all our home’s gas-fired cook stoves, water heaters and furnaces? With wanting both the coal and natural gas industries phased out, what is next?
If you are thinking nuclear power, think again. There are currently 54 nuclear power plants still operating in the United States, down from a high of 61 in 1990. Georgia Power’s Vogtle Unit No. 3 and No. 4 reactors just coming on line in early 2024 are the first new nuclear reactors built in the last 30 years, and they took 14 years and 9,000 full-time workers to build. Considering the average age of all remaining nuclear power plants is over 42 years, with no other replacement plants under construction it should be clear any new major shift to nuclear power would take at least 20 years to achieve.
While wind power generation first appeared promising and is now supplying 10% of our nation’s current energy demand, at least when the wind is blowing, the wind industry is now reluctant to add any new capacity due to the unanticipated very high costs of maintenance, frequent equipment breakdowns and restrictions on siting new locations. For example, the Danish wind developer Orsted just canceled its two major offshore wind farms that were to be located off the coast of southern New Jersey, creating a $4 billion loss for the company.
This leaves solar power, which currently provides only 3.4% of our nation’s energy demand. Last I checked the sun doesn’t shine at night, so no solar generation for almost half of each day. Plus there are also many afternoons with cloudy weather, which further limits available solar power generation. So, what supplies the power when the wind stops blowing and the sun goes down? In addition, the higher the percentage of our nation’s energy demand that will be met by solar and wind power, the higher the percentage of conventional backup power that will be required. The same time this is all happening, most existing coal and natural gas-fired power plants are being scrapped.
A major advantage for every coal, gas and nuclear plant, is their ability to generate a constant power output 24 hours per day, seven days per week, regardless of the time of day or the weather. Coal-fired power plants always maintain a minimum of three months supply of coal stockpiles on site, while natural gas supplies for gas-fired power plants are next to unlimited, and nuclear plants can operate years before needing refueling. This significantly reduced the risk of generator shutdown due to fuel supply-chain disruptions. What other forms of power generation have this level of reliability?
Not only will solar and wind power output fluctuate each hour of each day, which results in less grid stability, but we are losing the instant availability of backup power from conventional base load power plants, which are being phased out. It can take days to start up and stabilize the power output from a conventional power plant, so they typically remain “hot” in order to be instantly available for 100% backup the second the wind and solar power sags. This level of reliable backup will not be available once these conventional power plants are scrapped.
According to the United States Energy Information Administration, the electric power generated from all generating sources in 2023 totaled 4.24 trillion kWh for the year. Of this output, 39% went to power residential homes, 35% to commercial facilities and 26% to industrial production. Just 19.5% was supplied from coal-fired power plants, while 39.8% was supplied from gas-fired power plants, 18.2% from nuclear plants, 6.3% from hydropower, 10% from wind (when the wind is blowing), 3.4% from solar systems (when the sun is shining) and 2.8% miscellaneous sources.
Regarding using batteries to store daytime solar power, yes, you can use solar power generated during daylight hours to charge batteries that can then be used to offset nighttime electric loads. However, you cannot use this same solar power during the daytime to also supply daytime grid loads. You cannot count the same solar energy output twice since you are just shifting the time of day the power is being consumed. This will also significantly increase the need for large banks of lithium-ion batteries, which are considered hazardous waste when replaced every 10 to 12 years, not to mention these type batteries have been known to spontaneously catch fire in parked electric vehicles.
Now with this basic understanding of where our power comes from, let us find out how our aging electric grid is expected to absorb this unprecedented shift from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles over to millions of electric vehicles every single day. President Biden and many state governors are convinced if they can just convince everyone to scrap their conventional cars and buy electric vehicles, all our energy worries will be over. Right.
According to data from Statista Global Corporation, there were 286 million cars, including 11.6 million light-duty trucks, operating in the United States in 2023. This does not include large diesel-fueled trucks and commercial delivery vehicles. Based on data from the United States Energy Information Administration, these 286 million cars consumed 368 million gallons of gasoline per day, or 134.6 billion gallons for all of 2023. This is equivalent to 4.5 trillion kWh per year of electrical energy to produce the same equivalent amount of energy that amount of gasoline is currently providing.
Going back to my earlier fact of 4.24 trillion kWh per year generated by all sources of electric power in the United States, the electrical power that will be needed to charge all these electric vehicles exceeds the entire yearly generating capacity of the United States! While obviously not all conventional vehicles are going to suddenly be replaced with battery-powered vehicles, it should be obvious any major increase in the number of EV vehicles being charged will significantly require a major upgrade of our grid infrastructure and its generating capacity.
Based on a recent 2023 study by the U.S. Department of Transportation, a typical EV uses 300 to 700 kWh per month, depending on daily commute distance, vehicle weight, average speed driven and ambient temperature. This averages 0.35 kWh per mile, which will be higher or lower per individual driver based on these operating variables, but this should be a reasonable average for our use. There were a total of 1 million hybrid and all-battery electric vehicles operating in the United States prior to 2023, plus another 1 million new EVs sold in 2023. However, even with this major doubling of sales in 2023, this is still less than 1% of all passenger cars on the road today. I am guessing that the president’s goal for over half of all cars and trucks sold to be battery-electric by 2030 may need some adjustment.
Let’s see, replacing half of 286 million vehicles in the next five-years works out to 57 million EVs manufactured each year, which is 57 times more than the total number of EVs sold last year! While several established automakers have pledged publicly to phase out all gasoline-fueled vehicles they will build by 2035, I think a look at the overstocked lots of unsold and high-priced EVs might make them realize these plans are a little premature. Car rental agencies are reporting little customer interest in renting their EV models. Hertz just announced that they are selling all their 20,000 Evs, which they only purchased two-years ago due to limited interest from customers and their very high-repair costs.
Fast-charging stations
If you own an EV, you must charge it to drive it, and for most owners that means daily charging using grid-power. A November 2023 Wall Street Journal article reported on a survey of fast-charging stations in Los Angeles County, California. Los Angeles County was picked since it has the highest concentration of EV fast-charging stations and EVs in the entire United States. After visiting 126 fast-charging stations, researchers found over 40% of the chargers were out of service, while some had been waiting weeks or longer for repair.
Some of these failed charging stations had defective credit card readers, and others had a charging plug or charging software that was incompatible with some electric vehicle models. Long lines of EV drivers were found behind those fast-chargers still operating, and each averaged 30 minutes to reach an 80% charge level. In more rural parts of the country, EV chargers are not always easy to locate along a planned route and are spaced far in-between. Many fast-chargers have been installed on isolated back streets or in service areas where most drivers were afraid to exit their vehicle even in broad daylight.
In addition, not all chargers are alike, and not all chargers work with all vehicle models. Of the estimated 180,000 EV chargers currently operating in the United States, only a small percentage are the new “fast charger” design which can reduce charging time from 30 down to 15 minutes for some vehicle models. The fast-chargers for the most popular Tesla EVs are not compatible with any other electric vehicle models. Many proposed locations to install new chargers do not have an adequate electric service to handle the much-higher charging currents required for the new fast-chargers, and the commercial property owners lacked the budget to expand their existing electric service.
According to Politico, Biden and this Congress appropriated $7.5 billion in 2021 to install thousands of fast-charging stations access the United States. Now, three years later, not a single charger has been installed under this federal program. This legislation included $2 billion in direct grants to individual states for new EV chargers, but as of this writing less than half of those states that applied for this grant have started the initial bidding process, let alone actually install anything. Biden’s 2021 goal to add a half-million new EV charging stations by 2030 is more than a little optimistic.
Weather issues
Not only do most EV batteries lose up to 50% of their battery charge and travel distance when the ambient temperature drops to freezing, but these batteries also lose additional battery charge when powering the cabin heater and defroster. There are 16 northern states where winter temperatures average 40 degrees or below and have many weeks when the temperature rarely climbs above 20°F. In addition, most of these northern states average 180 or more inches of snow each year, which can linger on the ground for a month or more. Trying to defrost the vehicle’s windows and warm up the near-freezing interior of an EV each morning requires an additional start up electric load on the EV batteries, which have already lost substantial charge due to the low ambient temperatures, causing the travel range per charge to be cut by half or more.
Stopping for a fast-charge along your route more often due to reduced winter travel distance per charge is also time-consuming and can be very stressful when seeing the battery gauge approaching empty and still no charging station in sight. Believe me; I have been in this situation more than once! While the fast-charge time for an almost discharged EV battery is an average of 30 minutes at 77°F, this same battery charge can take over an hour to reach an 80% charge level when the outdoor temperature is below freezing.
A 2023 study conducted by Consumer Reports found a substantial loss of charge and travel distance for any EV battery once the ambient temperature drops below 20°F. Another recent study by Seattle-based Recurrent Corp for over 10,000 electric vehicles, including 12 different models, found multiple vehicles lost up to 26% of their travel range, while some models lost up to 46% of their travel range when ambient temperatures dropped to 32°F.
A 2023 Western Journal article noted multiple large cities in Minnesota and Wyoming had embraced the goal of being totally “green,” but quickly discovered their ambitious plans needed serious reforms. During recent cold winter weather, the entire fleet of new battery-powered electric buses in these cities lost over half of their travel range per charge, while riders complained constantly about the extremely cold interior bus temperatures. The battery-powered electric bus heaters were underpowered and could not keep up.
Travel distance on a single fill-up while keeping all riders nice and warm was never an issue with the older, diesel-powered buses. Now many of these cities have been forced to add charging stations along each bus route, requiring multiple delays for a quick charge every 30 to 40 miles driven during cold weather when the electric buses could barely achieve even half of their normal summer travel distance per charge. The constant stopping for charging and very cold bus interiors did not make for happy bus riders.
A 2023 article in the Vermont Daily Chronicle reported their state’s fleet of new battery-powered school buses were found to lose up to 80% of their normal travel range when the ambient temperature dropped below freezing. I must assume freezing temperatures are not an unusual occurrence during a typical Vermont winter! It should be noted that many state governors and legislatures were talked into replacing all diesel-powered transit city and school buses with millions in federal grant money. This instant pool of free money created a huge demand for new battery-powered buses, which in turn attracted new startups to build these new electric buses. However, as time passed and the funding sources for new electric bus orders dried up, the same governors and legislatures are now seeing large numbers of breakdowns since specialty repair parts are no longer available from these bus manufactures who have long since gone out of business. Many of these non-functional buses can now be found snow-covered on some municipal storage back lot.
As noted in the beginning of this article, there is a future for EVs in the United States, but just not the pipe dreams and unicorn future our politicians and the mainstream news outlets are promising. In addition, until they first address the aging state of our electric grid, the electric industry will not be able to handle charging millions of EVs in our future. It is going to take major efforts and investment to make coal, oil, gas and, yes, even nuclear power generation more efficient and with far lower emissions and risks. Getting rid of historically reliable energy sources without first developing a suitable replacement is not a viable solution.
The nation’s electric grid needs major renovations and modernization. Many existing power plants, sub-stations and their distribution systems are aging and overloaded. The electric utility industry is still basically a self-regulated industry consisting of thousands of independent for-profit corporations that avoid any change if it involves spending their rate-payers money. They need to embrace new micro-grid technology, improve system reliability and have a more robust mix of power generation, not less. Yes, the next few years are going to involve far more power outages and brownouts until all this gets resolved, so for now, do not trash your battery-powered radios and flashlights!
Jeffrey Yago is a licensed professional engineer and Certified Energy Manager with more than 50 years’ experience working in the energy and emergency power field and author of three books. His most recent books, “Lights On” and the “ABC’s of EMP,” will provide the reader with a much more detailed review of this topic. He is a feature writer for Backwoods Home magazine, Self-Reliance magazine, and Mother Earth News magazine, and is a frequent speaker at numerous national preparedness events.
Content created by the WND News Center is available for re-publication without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact [email protected].
SUPPORT TRUTHFUL JOURNALISM. MAKE A DONATION TO THE NONPROFIT WND NEWS CENTER. THANK YOU!
